Will Consumers Recover?

Financial FAQs

“Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2025, and up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.2 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 4.9 percent (±1.8 percent) from November 2024.” US Census Bureau

FREDretailsales

Retail sales were choppy in 2025, to say the least. Even the slight uptick in November after two months of contraction won’t stop President Trump’s wholesale destruction of the U.S. economy.

Sales declined or were barely positive in six of 11 months through November 2025, per the FRED graph of monthly retail sales and the future doesn’t look brighter for most Americans.

Suffering consumers and businesses have tried every which way to avoid the higher prices from Trump’s TACO tariffs (Trump Always Chickens Out) that can change on a whim and cause consumers to pull back their spending in the face of sharply rising prices caused in large part by Trump’s economic policies.

Or avoid rising insurance costs because Republicans won’t subsidize insurance premiums for some 20 million low-income Americans.

We report retail sales because it comprises approximately half of consumer spending and consumers support some two-thirds of economic growth. So consumer behavior is closely watched by economists attempting to predict the future.

But President Trump’s single-minded policy of levying import taxes on most of the world by fiat—to lower the trade gap between imports and exports which he claims is unfair—is not a good way to do business or run a country. And it continues the wholesale destruction, both at home and of our foreign alliances.

Take Trump’s return to “Drill baby drill” policies, for instance, that are not only causing Detroit automakers to lose $trillions in having to switch back to combustion engines but make more people sicker from the increased air pollution that we thought we had conquered with the EPA’s Clean Air Act.

Ford Motor has just announced a $19.5 billion charge to restructure its EV (Electronic Vehicle) and GM $7.6 trillion in losses over the past two quarters because of Trump’s war against electric vehicles, losses from higher tariff taxes on parts that go into its manufacture and removal of purchase incentives to buy EVs.

It’s hardly a surprise that many of Trump’s executive orders are ad hoc; not only meant to pay for the huge tax cuts in the Big Beautiful Tax Bill that have run up a record federal debt but to coerce our allies to pay for his empire building, such as levying 25 percent tariffs on NATO members that say they will protect Greenland from military seizure.

The question will be can consumers continue to shop in the face of so much chaos, with fewer entering the workforce? Less the half the number of jobs are being created monthly since last Fall’s government shutdown.

The Fed’s January Beige Book on the current state of our economy summed it up. Rising costs are the main elephant in the room.

“Cost pressures due to tariffs were a consistent theme across all Districts. Several contacts that initially absorbed tariff-related costs were beginning to pass them on to customers as pre-tariff inventories became depleted or as pressures to preserve margins grew more acute.”

Consumers are becoming very nervous in the face of such an unknown future, a future that depends on the actions of a man who can willfully destroy an economy to further his own interests.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Incompetence = Recession

 Popular Economics Weekly

"Trumpian Incompetence will provoke a counterreaction, which will prove to be an opportunity and rebirth. When that happens people will be ready to hear the truth that Trump will never understand—that when you turn America into a vast extortion machine, you will get some short-term wins as weaker powers bend to your gangsterism, but you will burn the relationships, at and abroad, that are actually the source of American’s long-term might.” David Brooks NY Times

Reuters

I quoted David Brooks last week because people will be ready to hear the truth when they realize that Trump’s “vast extortion machine” won’t lower inflation but raise it, won’t eliminate waste and fraud but slash essential governmental services instead (such as social security), and cut regulations that actually prevent financial markets from crashing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent must therefore find excuses why inflation is still rising and the Trump/Musk administration isn’t finding much fraud, but tearing out the guts of government that make it work.

This is why Treasury Secretary Bessent is hinting at a recession in making excuses for their incompetence, because “The market and the economy have just become hooked, and we’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period. There’s going to be a detox,”

It will take time for people to hear the truth because Trump’s executive orders are an attempt to stay ahead of the law and public media he reviles as they are uncovering his administration’s lawlessness and incompetence.

Trump believes such tactics will make him the autocrat and law unto himself he has always wanted to be; but only if the tariffs cause other countries cave in to his demands without retaliating for which the US will protect them militarily and favor them economically.

It is why Trump keeps repeating that he wants to corral Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada and even Mexico into his new “extortion machine”.

The craziness of his intentions shows tremendous ignorance of economics and history. We haven’t done very well in protecting anyone militarily since World War Two. Even the Korean War was a stalemate after our strategic withdrawal from the Yalu River when China entered the war.

Vietnam ended with a complete withdrawal. The Afghanistan exit may have been the most humiliating retreat after our 20-year occupation, and the Iraq war ended up strengthening Iran’s influence by eliminating Saddam Hussein, its arch enemy.

Trump’s history also reveals that he has never cared about most of those that voted for him. History ProfessortimothTimothy Snyder has said his real constituents that he wants to please are fellow autocrats and dictators Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.

Musk’s incompetence is also damaging our national security. Heather Cox Richardson reports “Sharon LaFraniere, Minho Kim, and Julie Tate of the New York Times reported that cuts to the top secret National Nuclear Security Administration have meant the loss of critical employees—from scientists and engineers through accountants and lawyers—at the agency that manages the nation’s 3,748 nuclear bombs and warheads.”

Musk is damaging our financial security as well. Judd Legum of Popular Information has reported in various interviews that an internal memo from the Social Security Administration, written by acting deputy commissioner Doris Diaz, called for requiring beneficiaries to visit a field office to provide identification if they cannot access the internet to complete verification there.

This is while they are closing Social Security offices. Diaz predicted “service disruption,” “operational strain,” and “budget shortfalls” that would create increased “challenges for vulnerable populations.”

Tariffs won’t balance the budget and take away the need for other taxes (like income taxes) either, because the targeted nations are already retaliating. The modern world is far more complex. President Mckinley’s first Gilded Age that Trump so admires used tariffs because we needed them to protect our young steel and manufacturing industries.

The first Gilded Age ended because massive corruption was unearthed during Teddy Roosevelt’s trust-busting progressive era, which led to creation of the Federal Reserve, income taxes and eventually FDR’s New Deal to protect us from future Robber Barons.

Karl Rove as GW Bush’s campaign manager and Republicans also openly yearned for a return to the McKinley’s Gilded Age. Tariffs have worked in developing new or better industries, which is why the Biden administration used them to protect our computer chip industry, which is a national security priority.

The president’s tariff authority is based on the need to protect our national security, whereas Trump wants to use it to protect his own grandiose ideas, as the authoritarian ruler he has always wanted to be.

David Brooks is right. The American public will eventually see the harm Trump's extortion machine will cause Americans as well as our friends and allies. And that by leaving the alliances that protect US—not only NATO, but the World Health Organization that protects against more pandemics, the Paris Accord where nations have agreed to bring down greenhouse gasses—we will be less secure.

Please to God this happens before we must go through another recession, or pandemic, or both.

Harlan Green © 2025

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Does Trump Want Another War?

 Answering Kennedy’s Call

“I’m not sure most Americans appreciate the monumental damage President Trump is doing to the post-World War II order that is the wellspring of American global leadership and affluence.” NYTimes Nicholas Kristof

USAToday

There is a growing outcry over the “monumental damage” emanating from the bromance of two ‘straight’ (and white) men on a tear of petty vindictiveness settling old scores, which can have far greater consequences.

It is tearing apart our closest alliances that protect Americans and other democratic countries from the depredations of autocrats and dictators, such as Vladimir Putin, who must imagine himself Czar Ivan the Terrible killing hundreds of thousands of his own people in attempting to conquer Ukraine to make it a part of a new Russian Empire (350,000 dead Russians at last count, per NBC’s Morning Joe).

“We have Trump and his oligarchy of ignorant shoe shiners vandalizing the network of organizations, agreements and values—largely put in place by America since the Second World War—which have given most of us, including America, on the whole an extraordinary degree of peace and prosperity.” Chris Patten, former UK Tory Chairman cited by Nicholas Kristof.

The level of ineptitude that Elon Musk’s DOGE team shows is breathtaking, as are the attempts to hide it.

“All in all, what we’ve just witnessed is a stunning display of incompetence, dismissal of critical federal workers by people with no idea of what they do and why it matters. Musk and Trump have, of course, apologized and promised to do better in the future.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman

Why the petty vindictiveness of our Bromancers? In a frightening insight by Timothy Snyder, Author of On Freedom, they are really ‘straight’ men trying to appear strong. But that can only be done by weakening the strong that actually stand in their way.

“Trump is a strongman in the sense that he makes others weak. He is strong in a relative sense; as Musk destroys institutions, what remains is Trump’s presence. But other sorts of power meaning vanish, as Musk takes apart the departments of the American government that deal with money, weapons, and intelligence. And then the United States has no actual tools to deal with the rest of the world.”

Dr. Snyder explained what he meant in a recent New Yorker article. Trump and Putin are both fascists, which by definition means masters of propaganda that twist words such as ‘communism’, or ‘deep state’ into meanings that feed their MAGA followers’ paranoid fantasies.

Hitler’s Goebbels, and Russia’s Stalin were masters of such propaganda that led to World War Two. It is detailed in Snyder’s bestselling book, “Bloodlands,” which describes the hideous period in the 1930s and ’40s when as many as 14 million people perished at the hands of Hitler and Stalin, with Ukraine a “particularly awful” mass grave.

And Trump is using the same fascist vocabulary today in branding Ukraine’s Zelensky the dictator, when it is Vladimir Putin.

That is why Trump and Musk’s actions threaten world peace and our own domestic order. They accomplish it by weakening the military alliances that have protected us such as NATO, while eliminating whole government departments that protect our health and safety and more environmental catastrophes, while weakening the FBI and DOJ that protect Americans from domestic and foreign terrorists.

In fact, settling old scores is an attempt to protect themselves from their own mistakes (i.e., Trump’s convictions, Musk-Tesla’s auto-drive accidents) by putting the blame on others. That is why Trump says he does not know what Musk is doing, when asked. He can therefore blame Musk or his lieutenants when said mistakes are uncovered.

Both Democrats and Republicans must now find a way now to counter Trump and Musk’s biggest mistake of all, their preoccupation with vengeance to and masks their own weaknesses that could lead to another war.

It is weakening our own strength and ability to stand up to Russia and China, where a larger war is most likely to start—because they have become emboldened by our growing weakness.

Harlan Green © 2025

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen