“The economy hasn’t lost its mojo.” MarketWatch

 Financial FAQs

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2025.” Census.gov

FREDretailsales

Headlines, such as that consumers “haven’t lost their mojo” have popped up when retail sales rose 0.2 percent in June. It’s a sign of consumers are willing to ‘shop until they drop’, which may keep the U.S. economy growing for some time.

It also means that same level of irrational exuberance of the 1990s is back once again, with the major market indexes at record levels, and consumers seemingly oblivious to the conditions that prevailed during the late 1990s.

 Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller first presented the term irrational exuberance to Alan Greenspan’s Federal Reserve Governors in 1996 to evidence how overvalued stock market levels had become at the time. But it wasn’t until 2000 that the dot-com asset bubble burst that many market commentators and some economists are comparing to the current record market rally.

The MarketWatch headline portrays most of the media’s reaction to the latest Advance Retail and Food sales report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The slightly hysterical headline is really a sign of relief because of the slight drop in monthly gas prices that prevailed during the 60-day cease fire agreement.

But the cease fire has ended. And it reveals how badly the Trump tariffs and Iran war have hurt consumer spending, still the backbone of U.S. economic growth. We have been a consumer-driven economy since the 1950s and end of World War II.

And since retail sales are not inflation adjusted, when adjusted for inflation, gas and food in particular have become less affordable. Retail inflation is still above 3 percent. Retail sales have fluctuated wildly, as per the above graph, rising 6.7 percent in 12 months because consumer bought more in earlier months to get ahead of the rising inflation—i.e., before the Iran War began to jack up everyday prices.

Though sales at car dealers and online merchants both jumped about 2 percent in June, sales fell at grocery, clothing and healthcare stores, says MarketWatch.

So, consumers are still shopping because they must, putting them further in debt. The Consumer Price Index for basic necessities like gas and food is still above 3 percent, as I said, and the wholesale (PPI) price index for raw materials that go into retail goods is 5.5 percent annually, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It’s still the largest rise in more than three years.

We don’t have to look at just the dot-com bubble to compare, either. I see an unsettling resemblance to the ‘roaring twenties’ of an earlier era from the recovery of another pandemic, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919 to 1920 that killed what would be millions of Americans if at our current population level.

It was a long recovery—until 1929 and the Black Friday stock market crash that led to the Great Depression, caused in part by another era of high tariffs that led to product shortages.

How long may this era of irrational exuberance last that has driven the financial markets to record levels with so much wealth pouring into a new space age that will take us years to return to the moon, much less turn a profit?

We are at another turning point in what currently looks like an A.I. revolution, much like the Internet’s introduction that took decades to adopt, and recovered from a Great Recession, let’s not forget.

So the best way to survive another bout of irrational exuberance is to be patient, in my opinion, rather than listen to the crowd that promises the next big thing.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Slower Economic Growth Ahead?

Popular Economics Weekly

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased
“On July 7, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 is 1.4 percent, up from 1.2 percent on July 1.”

AtlantaFed

What is happening to U.S. economic growth in 2026? The Atlanta Federal Reserve is one of the few organizations brave enough to attempt to predict future growth in constantly updated forecasts. And the news is not good for most Americans.

The culprit for the volatility in GDP second quarter economic growth predictions by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate that had dipped as low as 1.2 percent and is still a mere 1.4 percent (in the above GDP graph), is the large increase in our trade deficit.

And this was the gap that President Trump wanted to shrink with his new tariffs. It has worsened largely because Trump and his advisors don’t know what they are doing; i.e., haven’t taken the time to make the tariffs legal by negotiating with trade partners after doing the required research and then getting congressional approvals, rather than via his illegal executive orders.

The GDPNow model was predicting 3-4 percent Q2 GDP growth until last June as per the graph. But the trade gap has suddenly jumped 42.2% to $77.6 billion, the highest level since March 2025, said the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.

The most hurt is being done to American workers, since the enlarged trade deficit mirrors the production that had shifted overseas. So many of the components that go into the surging AI build-out are now being imported--especially computers and computer chips—which means an increasing share of the buildout is benefiting foreign workers.

This is a main reason for the alarming drop in June job numbers to a mere 57,000 workers, most of them in healthcare. Some 755,000 workers dropped out of the labor force in June because “jobs are hard to get,” said the Conference Board’s latest consumer Confidence Survey.

What's more, job gains in May and April were revised down to a combined 277,000 from a previous 351,000 - 74,000 fewer than previously reported.

Trump’s Iran War disaster is another reason for the hiring slowdown because higher energy prices from the Middle East is elevating inflation. Wall Street is hoping the A.I. revolution will boost labor productivity to such an extent that it will tame inflation, but without creating many new jobs.

The trade gap jumped 42.2% to $77.6 billion, the highest level since March 2025.

The major culprit; capital goods imports soared $1.1 billion to a record high $128.0 billion that subtract from GDP growth, which calculates just what is produced domestically.

We could be producing more of those imports domestically. But that hasn’t happened so exports dropped 3.2% to $317.7 billion in the latest report.

The shrinking labor force will also shrink GDP growth since fewer workers plus higher inflation means less will be produced domestically because of the higher costs, unless A.I. delivers on its promises of higher productivity. And that will take years, experts have been saying.

All this means fewer Americans will benefit for some time. The International Monetary fund predicts prices won’t come back down until the end of 2027, and only if the Iran war ends.

The official scorecard of the U.S. economy was updated to show the economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace in the first three months of the year, faster than the previously reported 1.6%.

Is that good news? Maybe, but Q1 consumer spending was the weakest in four years.

There will be more robots, Claude, ChatGPT, Open AI, etc., etc. but a shrinking workforce pays less taxes to support public policies, social security, Medicare. And don’t forget the public debt, which is soaring.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

"I Love the Inflation."

 Financial FAQs

Huffington Post

Why would our President say, “I love the inflation.” in the Oval Office in front of the world’s press? Huffington Post reported it was after being asked if Trump was concerned about new consumer price index data that showed the annual inflation rate at a 4.2%, three-year high.

Energy prices are skyrocketing with no prospects for a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz closure. And the latest inflation news is that the Producer Price Index for final demand just rose a whopping 1.1% in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, also the largest rise in more than three years

And the PPI contains the prices of the raw materials (such as oil products) that go into the Consumer Price Index. So no relief in sight for the pocketbooks of most Americans, the 80 percent of wage-earners that statistics show are now living from paycheck-to-paycheck.

Huffington Post reports the anti-Trump group Home of the Brave said that was why it was already putting the president's remarkable quote on political billboards in 16 states, part of a $15 million advertising buy highlighting the rising cost of living.

Yet there is a booming stock market (Thank you, Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO). This is while wages rose 3.4 percent in the latest May unemployment report, which means it can’t keep up with 4.2% Inflation.

Most Americans are depleting their savings just to survive. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure survey shows the sharp drop in personal savings—from 6.4 percent of their disposable income in January 2024 to 2.6 percent today that consumers are drawing from to keep up their spending.

It’s because most of the job growth has been in the lower-wage service sector—such as healthcare, education, and social services. Wages began to drop below 4 percent in May 2024, at the same time as inflation began to rise when Trump announced higher tariffs on all 180 countries in the world, which his advisors had to know meant another tax on consumers.

So the real reason Trump made such a flippant remark must be because he doesn’t give a damn about inflation, is blatantly ignoring the promise he made to voters that he would bring it down from “day one” of his presidency.

Why? He needs taxpayers to help pay down the ballooning debt incurred from his Big Better Tax Bill giving his fellow oligarchs such large tax breaks that it is endangering the full faith and credit of our government.

There’s another ‘balloon’ we should also start worrying about, the $ billions being invested in upcoming IPO's such as Elon Musk’s Space X that has sucked up some $75 billion in investments with little profits to show from it, and two more high-profile IPOs to follow: Anthropic and Open AI.

It’s part of the A.I. boom that’s being touted as another Industrial Revolution. But we mustn’t forget the pain such revolutions cost. The Industrial Revolution dating from 1890 caused 15 deep recessions or depressions, such is the price of such progress.

Or, we can demand that the record number of billionaires being created, and now even Elon Musk, the first Trillionaire created from the SpaceX IPO, pay their fair share.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Job Market Recovering

 Popular Economics Weekly

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined.” BLS

FREDpayrolls

The job market is finally recovering, after almost no job growth last year. The recovery is brutal, per the head spinning FRED payroll graph above; -149,000 jobs were lost in October 2025 and -156,000 jobs were lost as recently as February 2026 before recovering in March (+214,000 jobs), April (+179,000 jobs), and now May (+172,000 jobs).

The sudden hiring surge is because manufacturing has rebounded; both from the Biden administration’s $5 trillion raised in legislation to modernize U.S. infrastructure and the $1.5-2 trillion suddenly pouring into the A.I. construction of data centers.

Corporations are investing as much as possible of their record profits in A.I. that is being touted as the next industrial revolution able to produce more of everything, thus freeing us from the jobs that produce everything.

Fed Governors are already talking about raising interest rates later this year, instead of lowering them to combat the inflation surge. Bond yields have been rising as markets are now expecting higher inflation ahead.

Consumers will be hit the hardest, as surveys now show that just 20 percent can continue to shop as they have been with the rest now living from paycheck-to-paycheck.

This is happening at the same time as retail (CPI) inflation has topped 4 percent, the first time in three years. Its energy index has now risen 23.5 percent in a year, thanks to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

So, 20 percent of consumers can travel, boosting the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs in May, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months. But food and gas are another matter for the 80 percdent.

Manufacturing payrolls added 7,000 jobs, and construction added 17,000 jobs in May but most of the job growth was in the lower-wage service sector. Employment in local government rose by 55,000, largely reflecting a gain in local government, education (+44,000). Healthcare added 35,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 38,000 over the prior 12 months.

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich has predicted what will happen with wealth now concentrated in the hands of so few:

“When so much of our economy is in relatively few hands, we will inevitably get to the point where consumers cannot buy all the goods and services the economy is capable of producing (with A.I.). This puts the entire economy at risk.”

In a sign of the times, sales of existing homes accelerated to their fastest pace of the year in May, led by sales of homes priced at over $1 million, according to research released by the National Association of Realtors. The only categories where home sales declined last month were those homes that are most affordable priced below $250,000.

This second industrial revolution will create fewer high-wage jobs, in other words, because A.I. can already do much of the thinking, problem-solving work as well. Who will take care of the fallout? It will be jobs that improve the human element, particularly in healthcare, which A.I can certainly be helpful in modernizing.

But what about protecting the environment? A.I.’s huge computers use lots of electricity, and water to cool the super computers. But so do ordinary Americans.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Is Employment Recovering?

Financial FAQs

 “The number of job openings increased to 7.6 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations decreased to 5.1 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, both quits (3.0 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.” BLS.gov

FRED/jolts

The employment picture is improving, and there are prospects for more hiring ahead. The question is how long can it last with so much economic and geopolitical uncertainty?

The manufacturing boom is one reason for the employment surge because it’s building out our aging infrastructure, thanks to the Biden administration’s $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). But manufacturing is growing also due to the binge in private investment for the AI build out of data centers I’ve been writing about—maybe as much as $2 trillion in mainly borrowed money.

Biden’s IIJA provides $550 billion in new funding to rebuild roads, bridges, public transit, water systems, and broadband access across the United States on top of $650 billion authorized by Congress for work on existing infrastructure, says Wikipedia.

The latest Institute For Supply Management survey reported:

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 54 percent in May, 1.3 percentage points higher than in April and its highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in expansion for the 19th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) per Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

The good news is also showing up in vastly improved jobs data. The April JOLTS report on job openings being advertised by employers jumped to 7.6 million from its low of 6.55 million last December.

There was just a 100,000 increase in hires (5.1 million) over separations (5 million), in the report, because employers remain cautious over the tariffs and Iran war. But it’s also a sign they are holding onto their existing employees.

Add to this payroll provider ADP reported that U.S. businesses created 122,000 new jobs in May to mark the biggest increase in 16 months. It’s another sign of a rebound in hiring in what’s been a tough labor market for job seekers.

“Hiring was more broad-based in May than we’ve seen in the last few years,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, the U.S.’s largest processor of company payrolls. “The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season.”

So economic growth is holding up for now. Q1 was revised downward from an initial 2.0% to 1.6 %, due to slowing consumer spending. Second quarter growth estimates are in the 3% range, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of second quarter growth at 3.0%.

But an unusually pessimistic result from the University of Michigan sentiment survey reports that inflation expectations are sky high, which will further slowdown spending as consumers become more careful with their money.

“Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.7% last month to 4.8% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February 2026 prior to the start of the Iran conflict, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 3.5% in April to 3.9% in May, notably higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.”

So there are many caveats to future projections of the job market and a recovering manufacturing sector. The 2026 International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook highlights how precarious this recovery is. Our economic wellbeing may depend on the duration of the Iran war, to no one’s surprise. If it lasts more than a few months, the likelihood of recession has increased

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

 

Does Inflation Ever Come Down?

Popular Economics Weekly

“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March increased 0.7 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for March increased 3.5 percent.” BEA.gov

FREDpce

Inflation is rising again, to no one’s surprise, from its low of 2.3 percent in April 2025 when Trump first announced his worldwide tariff hikes, to 3.5 percent in March this year. The reasons are clear, inflation is rising on Trump’s watch, not Biden’s.

And inflation almost never comes down without another recession. This is verified in the above graph of Federal Reserve’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure price index from 1980. The gray bars are the five recessions since 1980, and each clearly shows the beginning of the sharp downward move of prices in the PCE index

The only time prices have come down without a recession since then was during President Biden’s term—from its high in June 2022 to slightly above 3 percent at the end of his term.

Biden could do this because the Fed used its best tool to combat inflation; raising interest rates at the same time as Biden succeeded in lowering the federal debt by raising corporate taxes to counter the huge influx of government money injected into the economy ($5 trillion) from Biden’s bipartisan Infrastructure, Inflation Reduction and CHIPS Acts.

The bills were passed to inaugurate the biggest modernization of the U.S. economy since the Great Depression that employed a record number of workers.

So it is possible to bring down inflation without a recession. And there is substantial harm, especially to working Americans who face higher prices for basic necessities, such as gas and healthcare, for prolonging this inflation surge.

What had caused the five recessions since 1980? Republican administrations cut taxes without paying for them, ballooning the federal debt instead of reducing it. Recessions (gray bars) occurred in 1980, 1981, 1990, 2008-09, all during Republican administrations. The short 2000 recession happened because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is an unnecessary inflation surge, in other words. It’s because of multiple wars being fought and a Republican congress that will not curb a president who doesn’t care about the costs and harm he is doing to Americans and the American economy.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

A Better World is Possible

 

Popular Economics Weekly

"Today we won because the Hungarian people didn't ask what their country could do for them, but what they could do for their country," Prime Minister Peter Magyar

NPR

I never thought I would see the most famous line from President John Fitzgerald Kennedy’s 1960 inauguration speech be adopted by another head of state, much less by a Kennedy look-alike of about the same age (45 years vs. JFK’s 43 years).

In a victory speech delivered to jubilant supporters on the banks of the Danube River, Magyar reiterated his promises to rebuild Hungary's ties with the European Union and NATO, root out corruption and cronyism and "restore the system of checks and balances," reported NPR.

Peter Magyar had just defeated Victor Orban, Hungary’s 16-year Prime Minister by a landslide, who was leader of the world’s so-called ‘illiberal’ democracies. Why did Orban lose, according to most commentators? It was the economy, “fueled largely by concerns about entrenched government corruption,” said NPR

Hungary had become the poorest member of the European Union with an inflation rate twice that of the EU average, and plunging economy growth.

“Hungary is the most corrupt state in the European Union, according to Transparency International, an organization that aims to combat corruption. The EU has blocked billions in funding to Orbán's government for its alleged assault on the bloc's principles of democracy and equality,” said NPR

So much for one-man rule. It’s a fact that other countries ruled by such autocrats are suffering the same fate as Hungary, such as Russia and Turkey, who had been suffering from slow growth and double-digit inflation for decades.

Why? Such rulers think they know better than the experts. President Trump’s playbook followed that of Orban with U.S. economic growth also plunging of late—mainly because of his Iran war that has shut down petroleum production in the Middle East. Who knows what’s to come?

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate of first quarter (Q1) 2026 economic growth widely followed by economists has plunged from its high of 3 percent, where it had been sitting since January 2026, to 1.3 percent in the latest revision, I reported last week.

The cult-like glorification and rampant corruption of President Trump that is harming the U.S. economy is almost a photocopy of Orban’s rule—tearing down the White House East Wing for a ballroom, wanting an Arc de Triomphe, family and son-in-law being enriched by Middle East rulers, his Bit-coin ventures (with World Liberty Financial, founded in September 2024 with the Trump family owning 75 percent), per The Nation, pardoning literally thousands of convicted felons, including convicted drug kings, and most of all extorting wealth from institutions and Robber Baron’s alike in return for special treatment.

Let us hope Hungary’s new Prime Minister can follow the path of President Kennedy, who concluded his inauguration speech with a plea to the rest of the world: “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of mankind.”

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Another Gulf War?

 Popular Economics Weekly

“So it looks as if the worst and the dumbest are not just at the top of the political leadership. They’re not just on the diplomacy and strategic policymaking end, but even in the cutting edge of the military. And it’s terrifying. America as we knew it may just not exist, even in our military forces.” Paul Krugman

Amazon

Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman is concerned about our military because it doesn’t look like President Trump will settle the Iran War any time soon, and Dr. Krugman is fearing the results could be catastrophic for the world economy.

And Nuriel Rubini, another economist, predicted in a recent CNBC interview that Donald Trump would escalate the war on Iran and thereby risk “1970s stagflation.” Dr. Rubini isn’t infallible. He is known for falsely predicting many ‘doomsday’ scenarios, but he did predict the Great Recession.

The U.S. was seemingly caught by surprise over the extensive damage that has already been done on Gulf refineries and U.S. Military bases in the area and almost 200 American casualties killed or wounded.

A JP Morgan commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva with co-authors Artem Fakhretdinov and Lyuba Savinova cited by MarketWatch is predicting trouble ahead if the war is escalated. “Much like during the pandemic, the shock unfolds sequentially rather than simultaneously — a rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories.”

Such disruptions are already occurring because so many petroleum products that originate in the Gulf must be transported by ship, and stockpiles are already depleted. In the first three weeks of March, Kaneva discovered a fall of 155 million barrels, mainly triggered by a 211 mbpd drop in oil in transit.

What would another “1970’s stagflation” look like that occurred once before because of another oil embargo—by OPEC—and resulted in multiple recessions? The rising prices of gas, fertilizers, and natural gas are already boosting inflation from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Stagnating growth is sure to follow, since consumers will save more, consume less, which is the classical response to such conditions.

So why then would Trump even attempt it? He seems to believe the U.S. military could pull off another Venezuela—perhaps by quickly capturing Kharg Island, Iran’s oil shipping hub, and closing the Strait of Hormuz.

That brings us back to Professor Krugman’s prognosis on American military capabilities. “There’s no question that the U.S. has unchallenged superiority in all of the conventional aspects of warfare. There’s no Iranian Air Force for, you know, there’s no Iranian Navy in any conventional sense. Unfortunately, it’s not that kind of war. The failure to have a prepared response to the modern world of drones and inferior powers which nonetheless have the ability to do a lot of damage, has been a bit of a shock.”

But Trump doesn’t seem to be listening to anyone on the economy. In giving a recent “A plus plus-plus-plus-plus-plus” grade on the U.S. economy in a recent interview with Politico cited by The Guardian, Trump is living in a fantasy world while he drives the U.S. economy into a possible recession.

The University of Michigan sentiment survey on how consumers currently think about our economy hit a new low in March. “Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment,” said survey Director Joanne Hsu

Hsu also said year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025.

What if our military has been fighting the wrong war? What if Iran has the capability that Ukraine has shown with its drone technology, though vastly smaller than Russia’s military?

The lessons from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan have already been forgotten if President Trump does escalate another Gulf War; by the “worst and dumbest.”

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why Trump 2.0?

Popular Economics Weekly

“According to the latest PISA rankings, which assess 15-year-olds in math, science, and reading, the United States ranks around 13th in reading, 18th in science, and 37th in mathematics out of 79 participating countries. Countries like China, Singapore, Finland, and Canada consistently outperform the US, particularly in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) subjects. World Population Review

Amazon

Why have Americans twice elected a president who is openly hostile to western, participatory democracy and actively supports dictators or wannabe dictators such as Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban?

It is due to the support of a dumbed-down Republican Party, but also an education system that hasn’t changed with the technological times, such as by educating more scientists and engineers.

Republicans have a history of dumbing down their electorate so much so that a powerful minority no longer believes in scientific facts but prefers conspiracy theories.

The Republican party’s support of ignorance is easily documented; from the denial of evolution and support of creative (intelligent) design in the 1970s, to Donald Trump’s attacks on higher education and scientific research today, including the evisceration of public health services that serve all Americans (including Obamacare) and attempt to eliminate the Department of Education.

The dumbing down of Americans has also been reflected in an educational system that no longer serves all Americans, as I said. We developed a universal K-12 education system that is really the foundation of our democracy. By 1930, 48 states had passed laws making education compulsory.

But according to the National Research Council, only 28 percent of high school science teachers consistently follow the National Research Council guidelines on teaching evolution, and 13 percent of those teachers explicitly advocate creationism or "intelligent design," said Psychology Today in a very damning 2014 article entitled, Anti-Intellectualism and the Dumbing Down of America:

"After leading the world for decades in 25-34 year olds with university degrees, the U.S. is now in 12th place," said Psychology Today. "The World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. at 52nd among 139 nations in the quality of its university math and science instruction in 2010. Nearly 50 percent of all graduate students in the sciences in the U.S. are foreigners, most of whom are returning to their home countries"

The result has been electing a president who makes a virtue of his ignorance and announces decisions with little homework but worldwide repercussions based on what he “feels in his bones.”

Dana Milbank, a longtime political columnist, documented the modern Republican Party’s history in his book, “The Destructionists: The Twenty-Fived-Year Crack-Up of the Republican Party.”

In May of 2021, a poll by the Public Religion Research Institute found that 23% of Republicans agree that, quote, "the government, media and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child-sex trafficking operation," said Millbank in an NPR interview.

Milbank asserts Republicans drift towards craziness began in 1994 when more than 300 Republicans under the command of “obstructionist and rabble-rouser” Congressman Newt Gingrich stood outside the U.S. Capitol to sign the Contract with America and put bipartisanship on notice.

And “Twenty-five years later, on January 6, 2021, a bloodthirsty mob incited by President Trump invaded the Capitol,” he said

The American public is getting it. The latest PEW Research poll reports:

· Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall.

· By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%).

· Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans.

Pundits give other reasons for such a dumbing down of a segment of the electorate--such as social media and television replacing literacy, or education that no longer teaches math and science or even history. Maybe that has enabled the Donald Trumps of the world to shout louder. The danger is that it may drown out any intelligent discourse about the most important issues of our day. It's driving at least one of our political parties into insanely dangerous positions today.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

 

Will Republicans Ever Learn?

 Financial FAQs

“The stakes are enormous if Republicans succeed in removing most of the estimated 11 million undocumented worker (only half of which are from Mexico and the Latin countries), and cut legal immigration in half, as they have promised to do. Economic growth will plummet, since it is mainly based on growth of the working age population, as well as labor productivity, which has also fallen since 2000.” Huffington Post

PEWResearch

Will Republicans ever learn that immigrants have always been the life blood of our economy?

The above quote is from a Huffington Post blog I wrote in 2017, the last time Trump Republicans tried to deport most or all of the 11 million undocumented immigrants.

Nobel economist Paul Krugman has said in a recent Substack blog that the latest unemployment report showed that since January 2025 the economy is estimated to have added 359,000 jobs, down almost 900,000 from job growth the previous year. This indicates that the job market is very close to complete stagnation.

And that means the whole economy could soon be in stagflation that economists have been so worried about—because inflation is still high despite slowing job growth.

Has anything changed in his second term? Yes, President Trump has doubled down on the deportation raids, which has so decimated the jobs market that it is in danger of destroying economic growth for most Americans as well.

Trump is using the lie that undocumented immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans in ramping up the DHS/ICE assault against almost any immigrant of color, when in fact immigrants not only create more paying jobs, but more consumers that pay taxes as well.

And Trump knows he is lying. His White Christian nationalist-centered policies are tailored to capture most of the economic growth for his oligarchs who hope the $billions they are investing in AI will require fewer human beings. AI and robots don’t pay taxes or go shopping as do the workers that are being replaced.

Barron’s economist Megan Leonhardt highlighted this fact recently, citing the economic planning firm Implan that calculated reducing the immigration population by one million in 2025 reduced GDP by $103.9 billion and eliminated 741,500 potential jobs as compared to 2024 during President Biden’s last year.

“In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s,” said PEW.

The long-term historical average one-million immigrants per year entering the U.S. have been needed just to keep economic growth at its long-term annual 2 percent real GDP average. And Trump’s State Department has now stopped processing entry visas entirely from 75 countries.

Although the number of adults in the prime working ages of 25 to 64 – 173.2 million in 2015 – will rise to 183.2 million in 2035, according to Pew Research Center projections, the total growth of 10 million over two decades will be lower than the total in any single decade since the Baby Boomers began pouring into the workforce in the 1960s.

What will happen to them? AI means replacing humans with robots that don’t contribute to our retirement systems as well. A country needs to increase its workforce just to finance the retirement benefits for fast-aging population. It’s a truth Republicans have never learned as they continue to support an autocrat who places little value on human lives or the constitution.

And where is most of the economic damage to date? To the farm belt as well as cities in the blue states. Implans reports California, New York, and Texas are most affected, with California having already lost $13.4 billion in GDP and 86,650 fewer jobs. But job losses are occurring in the red states as well. 

Will Republicans ever learn? Immigrants have always been the new blood entering our workforce that has enabled the American economy to grow and renew itself.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Where Are the Jobs--Part II?

 Financial FAQs

“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024. While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable.” ADP

FREDpayrolls

The FRED (St. Louis Federal Reserve) graph tells it all. Job formation has almost disappeared in the Trump economy. It’s not only the shutdowns, which have delayed the official U.S. unemployment report that was due for January, but past months as well, so private payroll data processors like ADP fill in the knowledge gap.

But we know from the latest FRED graph of private payroll hiring that private employers are barely hiring. Just 74,000 jobs were created in November 2025 and 22,000 in January, as reported by ADP.

So the GDP growth spurts last fall 2025 are from the $ trillions being invested in AI energy centers, not in corporations expanding their workforce. Corporations are laying off workers instead.

The best examples are Amazon and now the Washington Post. The NYTimes just reported that the Washington Post told employees on Wednesday that it was beginning a widespread round of layoffs “that are expected to decimate the organization’s sports, local news and international coverage.

“The company is laying off about 30 percent of all its employees, according to two people with knowledge of the decision. That includes people on the business side and more than 300 of the roughly 800 journalists in the newsroom, the people said,” said the NYTimes

CBS News reports that in 2025, companies directly pointed to their use of AI in announcing 55,000 job cuts — more than 12 times the number of layoffs attributed to AI just two years earlier, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Of those job losses, 51,000 were in tech, with most of the cuts concentrated in tech-heavy states such as California and Washington.

The main culprit are the tariffs that Trump is using to coerce concessions from foreign governments, but it is doing the most damage to Americans. U.S. vehicle sales plunged in January, for example. Automobile sales increased at an annual rate of 14.9 million in January, down 7% from 16.1 million in the final month of 2025, according to Wards Intelligence and profit losses of $billions have already been reported by GM and Ford due to the higher tariffs on aluminum and steel.

Consumers above all are reacting to the sudden changes in the employment picture. The Conference Board voiced their concerns in the headlineConfidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, surpassing pandemic depths: “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. A 5.1-point upward revision to December’s reading of the Index resulted in a slight increase last month, reversing the initially reported decline. However, January’s preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick.

So unemployed workers are now suffering under both the rising inflation from the tariffs and AI replacing many of their jobs.

It’s not a pretty picture, while we are still waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on whether most of Trump’s tariffs are even legal. It much safer to do nothing in such circumstances—consumers to hold on to their savings and employers to replace their workers with more technology.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

President Trump the Bully

 Answering Kennedy’s Call

 “With yesterday’s tragic news, we are calling for an immediate deescalation of tensions and for state, local and federal officials to work together to find real solutions.” Letter signed by 60 Minnesotan CEOs

CNBC.com

It has taken the ICE killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti for Minnesotan CEOs — among the most powerful and wealthiest Americans, says CNBC — to cause President Trump to blink, to back down from the Storm Trooper tactics of his immigration police in Minneapolis.

Minnesotans and the American public are learning how to counter what they are seeing with their own eyes, the real Donald Trump. His actions and those of his followers are the behavior of bullies, led by a megalomaniac with a very limited attention span and unlimited need for attention in the words of Mary Trump, his niece and a Clinical Psychologist, whose single-minded purpose is to gather as much wealth and power to himself as possible.

     It is a bully mentality that has infected Trump’s MAGA followers and leaders of the Republican Party as well, which sometimes takes tragedies such as happened in Milwaukee to open our eyes. There is little mystery to his actions.

Donald Trump’s success in business, such as it is, was due to his bullying tactics that browbeat investors and lenders to such an extent that he could no longer rely on U.S. investors and banks to finance his projects, but came to rely on Russian oligarchs instead who needed to hide their wealth from the Russian people.

Such a mentality has led to increased bullying in schools since the COVID-19 pandemic, and even gun violence. It is a mentality that attempts to impose a bully's version of reality on the real world for the sole purpose of domination.

Evidence of Trump's bullying behavior also comes from the exaggerated use of his hands, which is the body language and mannerisms of a bully reports Groff Beattle, a professor of Psychology at Edge Hill University who specializes in gestures,.

Also comments such as "mentally sick", "dummy", "looser" or "looked disgusting" are all examples of bullying language on Trump's Truth Social site. Furthermore, he has mocked the disability of reporter Serge Kovaleski, portrayed immigrants and foreigners as dangerous people, rapists or "criminal aliens", and demonstrated a significant lack of respect for women generally.

How does one oppose such destructive behavior? First, remember that bullies will prey on the weakest, and avoid confrontation with those stronger because of their own insecurities. Trump preyed on naïve students and the elderly in his Trump University scam. And he stiffed workers and employees when building his Trump Casinos either by paying them less than was contractually agreed to, or not at all via numerous bankruptcies.

It is a lesson NATO members at DAVOS have just learned that is being reflected in their speeches as they search for other countries to move their businesses.

Combine it with what many Psychologists have termed Trump’s Malignant Narcissism, a particularly dangerous form that means he will do anything, break any law to get his way.

Trump is now supporting Central and South American regimes backed by drug cartels in pardoning former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was serving a 40-year sentence for drug trafficking.

In standing up to what has proven to be a soulless, amoral administration Minnesotans are fighting for more than their own state, they are fighting to prevent a world that President Trump and his oligarchs want to restore in South and Central America for their own benefit by supporting right wing narco-states that have as little regard for life.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

A Better Economy for Whom?

 Financial FAQs

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the updated estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.” BEA.gov

FREDgdp

The U.S. economy is growing again. Why, when polls show that a majority of Americans are unhappy with the economy and their standard of living? Because this measure of growth doesn’t answer what every day Americans need.

The U.S. standard measure for overall economic health, Real Domestic Product (GDP), grew in the second and third quarter of 2025, despite the inflation surge from President Trump’s tariffs. In fact, rising inflation is probably boosting growth at the top for major corporations because higher prices usually mean higher profits for businesses, (but not consumers).

Q3 GDP growth increased in part because consumers could continue to spend. Spending was up 3.5 percent. This is despite the higher tariffs on almost all imports entering the U.S, which caused the GDP measure of overall inflation to rise 3.4 percent, which is too high.

GDP growth is soaring at the moment for a chosen few, in other words. But most Americans are unhappy with the high prices and inflation tied to tariffs. They no longer believe Trump’s fiction that exporters or Americans will eat the cost of the price hikes from the tariff taxes.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, also rose to a yearly rate of 2.8% in November, said the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was up from 2.7% in October with the 12-month rate of core inflation up to 2.8% in November from 2.7%.

So will consumers continue to spend as much going into the New Year? We already know that most consumers are in a very sour mood. The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence survey headline said it best: Confidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, surpassing pandemic depths.

“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”

That is alarming, needless to say. Year 2014 was when confidence was even lower than even the COVID-19 confidence deaths because it was during the Republican’s “no compromise” government shutdown that was meant to oppose President Obama’s agenda of improving ordinary American lives via such programs as Obamacare. It was for more than 30 days—what was then the longest shut down in history.

Is this a repeat performance should congress not agree on a new budget before the end of February?

Exports also helped to boost growth because they have been increasing as well. This might be because of higher labor productivity, i.e., fewer workers are producing more. Amazon has announced it is planning to lay off 30,000 corporate employees, for instance. AI is already replacing workers in industrial and transportation industries, hence the low hire rate being seen after last October’s government shut down. All eyes will be on the labor market in upcoming months.

With only 50,000 new payroll jobs in November, Americans are frustrated by the difficulty in finding jobs. Some also mentioned more costly healthcare and insurance as well in the Confidence Board survey.

And now the blatant lies of President Trump in his attempt to cover up the murders of American citizens by ICE in Minneapolis is sowing even more chaos. No country can continue to grow for long amid such uncertainty.

The high GDP growth numbers and record Wall Street stock indexes won’t convince most Americans that all is well when they see the opposite with their own eyes. That is not the way to run a country, as I’ve been saying.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen