Two Percent Growth Isn’t ‘New’ Normal

Popular Economics Weekly

There are many ways to look at the “weak” 2 percent growth numbers for Q3, though just the ‘Advance Estimate’ and so subject to at least 2 more revisions. But such weak growth isn’t due to excessive government regulations (since deregulation has not created greater overall growth, only more recessions). The record low interest rates mean that banks and corporations have too much money to spend, but no place to invest it, since consumers aren’t spending as they used to.

Weak growth over the past decade in particular can mainly be traced to the fall in household incomes, and what consumers can really afford. If their incomes were growing as in 2000 before the Bush tax cuts and wars, for instance, then we would already be back to 1990s levels of economic growth—when 4 to 6 percent annual growth rates were more normal—before the last 2 recessions (gray bars) as the graph shows.

Graph: Calculated Risk

And where has the lost household income flowed, since corporations have the highest profits in history as a percentage of GDP? It has been paid to the investor class and corporate CEOs, in the form of increased dividends, capital gains and stock options, or is part of the $2 trillion cash hoard held by corporations.

Graph: CBPP

For it is the tremendous shift of wealth that has stunted growth since 2000 and caused the Great Recession. Incomes of the wealthiest have soared, mainly because of 2001 and 2003 tax cuts that lowered investment tax rates for the wealthiest and drastically cut tax revenues, while incomes of 99 percent barely grew. This diminished purchasing power of consumers has accounted for most of the $6 trillion in lost output that resulted from the 18-month Great Recession (12/2007 – 6/2009).

It is an example of the failure of small government policies that instead of creating more prosperity for all, diverted it to the wealthiest. And the resulting record income inequality has damaged economic growth say more and more studies, such as a recent IMF study by Andrew Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry that suggests income inequality might shorten our economic expansion by one-third in jobs lost and goods products.

“…a careful look at the varying levels of inequality in different countries demonstrates just how much societal divides in wealth really matter. Countries with high inequality are far more likely to fall into financial crisis and far less likely to sustain economic growth,” said the authors in a Foreign Affairs article.

The U.S. has fallen to the lowest ranking on income inequality. The CIA World Fact Book ranks the U.S. 94^th in income equality below all developed countries, Iran, and Russia. In fact, the U.S. is just above Jamaica and the poorest African countries. Wealth—both income and assets—has become concentrated among fewer and fewer Americans, in other words.

In spite of consumers’ massive loss of income, the University of Michigan reports confidence is being restored—though nothing like the 1990s readings of 100 plus. Hence the belief that consumers are becoming resigned to a ‘new’ lower growth normal. The 88.1 reading for current conditions is up a noticeable 2.4 points from September to hint at general growth for October's slate of economic data. The expectations index is up a sizable 5.5 points from September which hints at confidence in income prospects and is a positive for the holiday shopping outlook.

Graph: DShort

But this new normal for lower growth is nothing like the 1990s, as we’ve said, and as the graph makes clear. Contrary to Mitt Romney’s assertion that governments don’t create jobs, we can now see the effects of FEMA’s disaster relief efforts after Tropical Storm Sandy. Governments spend most revenues in the private sector—whether for defense, education, environmental protection, infrastructure or research.

So we do not have to accept slower growth, if we recognize and right the record inequality that has caused our market economy to repeatedly crash. As Nobel Economist Joseph Stiglitz was quoted in a recent review of his latest book, The Price of Inequality, “Inequality leads to lower growth and less efficiency. Lack of opportunity means that its most valuable asset — its people — is not being fully used. Many at the bottom, or even in the middle, are not living up to their potential, because the rich, needing few public services and worried that a strong government might redistribute income, use their political influence to cut taxes and curtail government spending. This leads to underinvestment in infrastructure, education and technology, impeding the engines of growth… “

Harlan Green © 2012

U.S. Economy Is In Recovery

Popular Economics Weekly

I mentioned last week that the U.S. economy is now growing faster than the rest of the developed world. How can that be, you say, with all the election propaganda saying the recovery has been a failure?  Here’s why.  The IMF has now chimed in to the chorus of voices that says the U.S. is the first to repair the destruction wrought by the Great Recession. 

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook projects that the United States will be the strongest of the world’s rich economies. U.S. growth is forecast to average 3 percent, much stronger than that of Germany or France (1.2 percent) or even Canada (2.3 percent).

“Increasingly, the evidence suggests that the United States has come out of the financial crisis of 2008 in better shape than its peers — because of the actions of its government,” says Fareed Zakaria in a Washington Post Oped. “In addition to providing general liquidity, the Fed and the Treasury rescued the financial system but also forced it, through stress tests and new rules, to reform. The result is that U.S. banks are in much better shape than their European counterparts.”

And the Fed announced it will discuss a possible expansion of the size of its third round of bond buying and “better ways to guide markets about future policy actions” at its last FOMC meeting.  This includes setting actual employment targets to reduce the unemployment rate to 6 percent or below.  This is huge, and markets rallied on the announcement because there is no other stimulus spending in the works with austerity in Europe and even China slowing. 

One major issue that hasn’t been discussed is debt deleveraging, and the U.S. is outperforming other developed—and underdeveloped—countries in reducing its debt, contrary to the contentions of politicians who have been repeating their charge that Obama is making the deficit worse, though most of it came from the Great Recession.

Graph: McKinsey and Company

Also, a McKinsey and Company study noted that “Debt in the financial sector relative to GDP has fallen back to levels last seen in 2000, before the credit bubble. U.S. households have reduced their debt relative to disposable income by 15 percentage points, more than in any other country; at this rate, they could reach sustainable debt levels in two years or so.”

Then U.S. corporations have bounced back. Corporate profits are at an all-time high as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, and companies have $1.7 trillion in cash on their balance sheets. The key to long-term recoveries from recessions is reform and restructuring, and U.S. businesses have responded with government help.

And there is America’s energy revolution, which is also bringing back manufacturing. U.S. exports, which have climbed 45 percent in the past four years, are at their highest level ever as a percentage of GDP.

The facts speak for themselves, in spite of the ‘fiscal cliff’ scares, and most of the euro zone in recession.  The best way to weather any future downturn is to have paid down their debts.  So it looks like the U.S. will once again be the world’s engine of growth that prevents another recession, as I’ve said.

Harlan Green © 2012

New-Home Sales, Mortgages Boosting Growth

The Mortgage Corner

Following the 15 percent housing construction bump in September, new-home sales rose 11.7 percent and are up 27 percent over September 2011, as inventories have shrunk to a meager 4.5 months, especially at the affordable level. The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 389 thousand. This was up from a revised 368 thousand SAAR in August. This is the highest level since April 2010 and the tax credit related bounce, says Calculated Risk.

Graph: Calculated Risk

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) also expects to see $1.3 trillion in mortgage originations during 2013, largely driven by a spillover of refinances into the first half of the year. This is thanks in large part to the Fed’s QE3 that has pushed 30-year fixed conforming rates to 3.125 percent with 0 points in California at this writing.

The MBA also upwardly revised its estimate of originations for 2012 to $1.7 trillion, approaching levels at the height of the housing boom. MBA expects to see purchase originations climb to $585 billion in 2013, up from a revised estimate of $503 billion for 2012. In contrast, refinances are expected to fall to $785 billion in 2013, down from a revised estimate of $1.2 trillion in 2012, as more new homes are built.

Graph: Calculated Risk

“We expected 2012 originations to be front-loaded in the first half of the year, with refis falling off with rate increases, said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist. “Instead we saw the refinance market grow during the year due to a combination of low rates, thanks to QE3 and slowing global growth because of continuing problems in Europe, and adjustments in the HARP and FHA refinance programs. We expect 2013 refinance originations to play out like our original expectations for 2012, with a long tail of refis extending through the first half of the year followed by a rapid drop-off in the second half.”

The bottom line is that with banks still holding some 2 million plus of the so-called ‘shadow inventory’ of existing homes, as they work through their homes in default, the demand for new homes should continue to grow. Serious delinquencies, which are the main driver of the shadow inventory, declined the most from April 2012 to July 2012 in Arizona (3.2 percent), Pennsylvania (2.8 percent), New Jersey (2.3 percent), Delaware (2.2 percent) and Maine (2.2 percent).

In the end, an improving jobs picture will be most effective in bringing down serious delinquencies, and so the shadow inventories further—thus increasing the supply of houses available for sale. And employment is improving with 150,000 private sector jobs per month created just over the past year, enough to absorb new entrants.

Harlan Green © 2012

Better Growth and Jobs Ahead?

Popular Economics Weekly

The U.S. economy is now growing faster than the rest of the world. And the Fed just announced it will discuss a possible expansion of the size of its third round of bond buying and “better ways to guide markets about future policy actions” at this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

This is huge, and markets rallied on Monday’s announcement prior to the meeting because there is no other stimulus spending in the works with austerity causing recessions in Europe and even China slowing. So it looks like the U.S. will once again be the world’s engine of growth that prevents another worldwide recession.

Even Barron’s is sounding upbeat on future growth—at least according to the Levy Forecast. The U.S. is “improving its manufacturing, competitiveness, containing its depression, cleaning up private balance sheets, developing greater energy independence. (read abundant natural gas)…Furthermore, the people and government of the U.S. have withstood all kinds of military, political, and economic challenges without collapsing or losing their free markets or culture of innovations.”

In the case of the Fed, words can mean as much as actions, since no one wants to bet against our Federal Reserve—and by proxy the U.S. Dollar as the world’s preeminent reserve currency.

The biggest monetary-policy development since the last Fed meeting was that Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, also came out in support of more accommodative numerical targets. In what one Fed watcher called a plot twist out of an Alfred Hitchcock movie, Kocherlakota called on the Fed to hold interest rates at zero for another four years until the unemployment rate hits 5.5 percent. Only a few months earlier, Kocherlakota, a leading inflation hawk, had advocated a rate hike before the end of this year.

Two signs of greater growth ahead were boosts in retail sales and the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Housing prices are also rising again as inventory shortages are slowing sales.

Graph: Econoday

The consumer was out spending more than expected in September—even after discounting gasoline prices.  Apple also appears to have bumped the numbers up.  Total retail sales in September advanced 1.1 percent after gaining 1.2 percent the month before.  Motor vehicle sales increased 1.3 percent after a 1.8 percent jump in August.

The best known predictor of future growth is the LEI, and the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators jumped in September but with help in August from a downward revision. The leading index increased 0.6 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent decline the prior month—originally down 0.1 percent.

Graph: Econoday

And though existing-home sales are slowing because of falling inventories, the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $183,900 in September, up 11.3 percent from a year ago. The last time there were seven consecutive monthly year-over-year increases was from November 2005 to May 2006, according to the NAR.

Graph: Calculated Risk

The Fed has made what amounts to a promise to not only keep interest rates low for years—maybe up to 4 years, if Fed Governor Kocherlakota is to be believed—until the unemployment rates drop substantially. This is a promise that not only the U.S., but the whole world will listen to given the Fed’s preeminence in supporting growth.

Harlan Green © 2012

President Obama’s Record Achievements

Financial FAQs

Why so many doubters of the President’s record? Candidate Romney would have us believe Obama has accomplished nothing, but in fact President Obama has one of the most history making legislative records since FDR. The Washington Monthly lists just 50 of President Obama’s top accomplishments.

We could start with Obama Care, or the Affordable Care Act, which no other President was able to enact, or ARRA, the $787 Billion stimulus that funded $100B in infrastructure improvements alone and supported state public service employment (police, fire, etc.), or doubling fuel efficiency of autos, or cutting nuclear weapon inventories of Russia and the U.S,, or passage of Dodd-Frank financial regulation, and so on.

In fact, he has scored successes in almost every sector of our society—universal health care, nuclear disarmament, energy conservation, education, financial regulation, consumer protection, job creation, and even housing—in spite of the record number of Senate Republican filibusters.

But more importantly, Obama has in fact reversed the Greatest Recession since the Great Depression with his economic policies and job creation programs. Yes, his so-called ‘Keynesian’ stimulus programs include recapitalizing banks, and a structured bankruptcy that brought back Chrysler and GM, thus saving 1 million jobs. And ARRA is credited with saving up to 3.5 million jobs, by the way.

This won’t satisfy Romney-Ryan supporters, of course, who believe only way to prosperity is to reduce taxation of the wealthiest. But it has never worked. GW Bush’s tax cuts and borrowed money created just 3 million jobs in his 8 years, versus 5 plus million jobs under Obama to date.

And it can’t work. Why? The wealthiest have for the most part hoarded their wealth; first paying themselves, then parking much of it overseas in tax havens, or investing in other countries. They have been increasing their share of our economic pie since the 1970s, creating the greatest inequality of income and opportunity since 1928.

Chrystia Freeland’s history of the wealthiest, Plutarchs, The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and The Fall of Everyone Else, documents just how wealthy the wealthiest have become at the expense of everyone else, as she says. Just in the first year 2009-2010 of this economic recovery, for instance, 93 percent of income gains went to the top 1 percent while the top 0.01 percent gained an average $4.2 million per household.

And now we know inequality is bad for growth and our position in the world. A recent IMF study by Andrew Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry suggests such inequality might shorten our economic expansion by one-third in jobs lost and goods products.

“…a careful look at the varying levels of inequality in different countries demonstrates just how much societal divides in wealth really matter. Countries with high inequality are far more likely to fall into financial crisis and far less likely to sustain economic growth,” said the authors in a Foreign Affairs article.

Graph: CBPP

We actually know more than that. British sociologist Richard Wilkinson has studied inequality and written extensively about it. Countries with the greater inequality have higher rates of poverty, violence (30,000 gun deaths per year in U.S., 1 million over the last 4 decades), prisons per capita, and lower levels of health and education.

So in fact, inequality is more a symptom of third world status than being world’s superpower. In The Spirit Level, he and Kate Pickett document the damage that inequality brings to societies.

Graph: Spirit Level

In the case of the U.S., it will mean a decline from being the world’s only super power, as the Plutocrats garner ever more wealth for themselves, and less for the benefit of a stronger democracy. It is a sad story. Only investments in healthcare, education, Research and Development in new technologies that Obama advocates will strengthen our democracy.

Harlan Green © 2012

President Obama’s Record Achievements

Financial FAQs

Why so many doubters of the President’s record? Candidate Romney would have us believe Obama has accomplished nothing, but in fact President Obama has one of the most history making legislative records since FDR. The Washington Monthly lists just 50 of President Obama’s top accomplishments.

We could start with Obama Care, or the Affordable Care Act, which no other President was able to enact, or ARRA, the $787 Billion stimulus that funded $100B in infrastructure improvements alone and supported state public service employment (police, fire, etc.), or doubling fuel efficiency of autos, or cutting nuclear weapon inventories of Russia and the U.S,, or passage of Dodd-Frank financial regulation, and so on.

In fact, he has scored successes in almost every sector of our society—universal health care, nuclear disarmament, energy conservation, education, financial regulation, consumer protection, job creation, and even housing—in spite of the record number of Senate Republican filibusters.

But more importantly, Obama has in fact reversed the Greatest Recession since the Great Depression with his economic policies and job creation programs. Yes, his so-called ‘Keynesian’ stimulus programs include recapitalizing banks, and a structured bankruptcy that brought back Chrysler and GM, thus saving 1 million jobs. And ARRA is credited with saving up to 3.5 million jobs, by the way.

Graph: Calculated Risk

This won’t satisfy Romney-Ryan supporters, of course, who believe only way to prosperity is to reduce taxation of the wealthiest. But it has never worked. GW Bush’s tax cuts and borrowed money created just 3 million jobs in his 8 years, versus 5 plus million jobs under Obama to date.

And it can’t work. Why? The wealthiest have for the most part hoarded their wealth; first paying themselves, then parking much of it overseas in tax havens, or investing in other countries. They have been increasing their share of our economic pie since the 1970s, creating the greatest inequality of income and opportunity since 1928.

Chrystia Freeland’s history of the wealthiest, Plutarchs, The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and The Fall of Everyone Else, documents just how wealthy the wealthiest have become at the expense of everyone else, as she says. Just in the first year 2009-2010 of this economic recovery, for instance, 93 percent of income gains went to the top 1 percent while the top 0.01 percent gained an average $4.2 million per household.

And now we know inequality is bad for growth and our position in the world. A recent IMF study by Andrew Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry suggests such inequality might shorten our economic expansion by one-third in jobs lost and goods products.

“…a careful look at the varying levels of inequality in different countries demonstrates just how much societal divides in wealth really matter. Countries with high inequality are far more likely to fall into financial crisis and far less likely to sustain economic growth,” said the authors in a Foreign Affairs article.

Graph: CBPP

We actually know more than that. British sociologist Richard Wilkinson has studied inequality and written extensively about it. Countries with the greater inequality have higher rates of poverty, violence (30,000 gun deaths per year in U.S., 1 million over the last 4 decades), prisons per capita, and lower levels of health and education.

So in fact, inequality is more a symptom of third world status than being world’s superpower. In The Spirit Level, he and Kate Pickett document the damage that inequality brings to societies.

Graph: Spirit Level

In the case of the U.S., it will mean a decline from being the world’s only super power, as the Plutocrats garner ever more wealth for themselves, and less for the benefit of a stronger democracy. It is a sad story. Only investments in healthcare, education, Research and Development in new technologies that Obama advocates will strengthen our democracy.

Harlan Green © 2012

Housing Construction, Retail Sales Surge

The Mortgage Corner

Another sign that the economy is finally recovering—new housing starts surged 15 percent, to their highest levels since 2008 and the beginning of the Great Recession. This is boosting construction employment in particular, but also finance, insurance and other related sectors. Construction employment is up 7 percent just this year, for instance.

And privately-owned housing building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000. This is 11.6 percent above the revised August rate of 801,000 and a huge 45.1 percent above the September 2011 estimate of 616,000. This is an even better indicator that new housing inventories, which have fallen to a 4-month low, will recover.

As Calculated Risk reported, Three-fourths of the way through 2012, single family starts are on pace for about 520 thousand this year, and total starts are on pace for about 750 thousand. That is actually an increase of about 20 percent from 2011, and confirms rising builder optimism in the NAHB sentiment survey.

Graph: Calculated Risk

And The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) just released its August Refinance Report, which shows that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans refinanced through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) accounted for nearly one-quarter of all refinances in August.

Nearly 99,000 homeowners refinanced their mortgage in August through the HARP program with more than 618,000 loans refinanced since the beginning of this year. This continues the strong pace of HARP refinancing with the program on target to reach a million borrowers in 2012.

In August, borrowers with loan-to-value (LTV) ratios greater than 105 percent continued to account for more than half the volume of HARP loans as HARP enhancements were fully implemented in the second quarter of 2012.
In August, nearly 18 percent of HARP refinances for underwater borrowers were for shorter-term 15- and 20-year mortgages, which help build equity faster.

But the best sign that consumers are feeling more confident was the surge in retail sales, up a huge 1.1 percent.

Graph: Inside Debt

Retail sales rose in September as Americans stepped up purchases of everything from cars to electronics, a sign that consumer spending is driving faster economic growth. Reuters’ Inside Debt reports consumer spending remains the U.S. economy's biggest engine, and expectations for third-quarter economic growth improved after the Commerce Department reported a 1.1 percent increase in retail sales.

Lastly, three and a half years after peaking, the number of California homes entering the foreclosure process fell last quarter to the lowest level since the early stages of the housing bust. Mortgage default filings hit their lowest point since first-quarter 2007, due in large part to a stronger economy and housing market and more short sales, a real estate information service reported.

All of these factors—especially consumer spending--are the reasons economists are upgrading their estimates of GDP growth for the rest of the year. 

Harlan Green © 2012