Great Employment Report!

Popular Economics Weekly

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline,.” BLS

MarketWatch

This was a very good March unemployment report, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a complete reversal of February’s -133,000 (revised) payroll job losses. It was mainly because 31,000 Kaiser healthcare nurses settled their strike, and improved weather brought construction workers out that were building the record number of AI data centers that must generate so much electricity for Artificial Intelligence that could put as much as 30 percent of white-collar workers out of jobs.

It didn’t bring much enthusiasm back to Wall Street because Trump threatened in his national address to continue the Iran War while he ended it and let everyone else deal with the Strait of Hormuz.

It was his usual gobbledygook, in other words, that didn’t make anyone happy and shifted the blame for the closing of the Strait to others, when there had always been free passage until Trump/Hegseth revealed how much they enjoyed killing people.

It was a reprise of the Bush/Cheney Iraq war, in other words, that took eight years to resolve and ultimately led to the Great Recession.

The March unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3 percent while 400,000 more adults left the workforce. This means our working age population continues to shrink while fewer workers are needed thanks to more use of Claude, CHATgbt, bots, etc., etc., until who knows when??

We should know be looking at consumer behavior if we want to know what happens next. Retail sales picked up in March, so consumers are shopping again and consumer confidence edged up as well. Retail sales comprise some 50 percent of consumer spending and is the main driver of growth for the U.S. economy.

In the 12 months ending in February, retail sales increased a solid but below-trend 3.7% in unadjusted terms, but that was before $4 per gallon gas and the supply disruptions from the Iran war.

And “Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

We will certainly see higher prices and possibly higher interest rates ahead as the Iran war continues, as we did with the Iraq war. Alan Greenspan’s Federal Reserve raised its Fed Funds rate from 1% in 2003 to 5.25% in 2006 to combat soaring inflation from the $2 trillion plus cost of the ill-fated invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan that created America’s first $trillion budget deficit.

The badly-planned Iran war will cost as much or more while American taxpayers continue to struggle to pay for more federal debt as this war drags on.

I get the feeling we are staring at another economic precipice. It can for several reasons—another costly war, an energy shortage, President Trump asking allies to bail him out after dissing them, the illegal tariffs, cutting off immigration when there’s a looming shortage of workers, etc., etc…

The list is almost endless.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why the Decline in Job Vacancies?

 Financial FAQs

“The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires decreased to 4.8 million, and total separations changed little at 5.0 million.” BLS.gov

FREDjobopenings

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was bad news for workers, as per the slide in available jobs portrayed in the above graph of monthly job openings.

It has now fallen to just 6.9 million in February 2026, the total of available nonfarm payroll jobs tallied by the Labor Department. Actual job hires fell to 4.8 million while 5.0 million left the workforce, a net loss of 200,000 jobs.

The Iran War will add to the damage that has already been done to the U.S.—and maybe worldwide—economy from the single-minded focus on what is most important to President Trump and his Robber Barons; bringing back another Gilded Age with its ultra-consolidation of wealth that has caused record public debt that is being paid for by American taxpayers. 

Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich listed the economic damage from Trump’s first term alone. He (Trump) pledged to be “the greatest jobs president that God has ever created.”

He’s been the worst jobs president in American history. In his first term, Trump presided over a historic net loss of nearly 3 million jobs, the worst jobs numbers ever recorded under an American president, as tabulated by FactCheck.org.

FactCheck.org showed more the decline in Trump’s first term:

· The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 36.3% from 2016.

· The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million.

· The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.

And President Trump month-long war with Iran is adding to the damage with the blocked petroleum supply chain that provides so many necessary byproducts—such as fertilizer, natural gas and helium, for starters.

“After a month, your war has already cost 13 American lives, cost American taxpayers at least $30 billion, cost American consumers at least a dollar more per gallon of gas than they paid a month ago, pushed up food prices and mortgage rates, and pushed down the value of 401(k) retirement plans. It’s mangled supply chains for industries that rely on items such as fertilizer to grow food or helium to make computer chips,” said Professor Reich

So we shouldn’t be looking at the 1970’s era of stagflation for a result from the Iran War because of the damage already done in President Trump’s second term, whether the Strait is closed, or not. It may take longer to materialize but look more like another Great Recession, I said recently, that was caused by the economic mismanagement of another Republican administration involved in a Middle East war.

A key will be watching the employment picture this week, especially the Labor Department’s Friday unemployment report.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Another Gulf War?

 Popular Economics Weekly

“So it looks as if the worst and the dumbest are not just at the top of the political leadership. They’re not just on the diplomacy and strategic policymaking end, but even in the cutting edge of the military. And it’s terrifying. America as we knew it may just not exist, even in our military forces.” Paul Krugman

Amazon

Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman is concerned about our military because it doesn’t look like President Trump will settle the Iran War any time soon, and Dr. Krugman is fearing the results could be catastrophic for the world economy.

And Nuriel Rubini, another economist, predicted in a recent CNBC interview that Donald Trump would escalate the war on Iran and thereby risk “1970s stagflation.” Dr. Rubini isn’t infallible. He is known for falsely predicting many ‘doomsday’ scenarios, but he did predict the Great Recession.

The U.S. was seemingly caught by surprise over the extensive damage that has already been done on Gulf refineries and U.S. Military bases in the area and almost 200 American casualties killed or wounded.

A JP Morgan commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva with co-authors Artem Fakhretdinov and Lyuba Savinova cited by MarketWatch is predicting trouble ahead if the war is escalated. “Much like during the pandemic, the shock unfolds sequentially rather than simultaneously — a rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories.”

Such disruptions are already occurring because so many petroleum products that originate in the Gulf must be transported by ship, and stockpiles are already depleted. In the first three weeks of March, Kaneva discovered a fall of 155 million barrels, mainly triggered by a 211 mbpd drop in oil in transit.

What would another “1970’s stagflation” look like that occurred once before because of another oil embargo—by OPEC—and resulted in multiple recessions? The rising prices of gas, fertilizers, and natural gas are already boosting inflation from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Stagnating growth is sure to follow, since consumers will save more, consume less, which is the classical response to such conditions.

So why then would Trump even attempt it? He seems to believe the U.S. military could pull off another Venezuela—perhaps by quickly capturing Kharg Island, Iran’s oil shipping hub, and closing the Strait of Hormuz.

That brings us back to Professor Krugman’s prognosis on American military capabilities. “There’s no question that the U.S. has unchallenged superiority in all of the conventional aspects of warfare. There’s no Iranian Air Force for, you know, there’s no Iranian Navy in any conventional sense. Unfortunately, it’s not that kind of war. The failure to have a prepared response to the modern world of drones and inferior powers which nonetheless have the ability to do a lot of damage, has been a bit of a shock.”

But Trump doesn’t seem to be listening to anyone on the economy. In giving a recent “A plus plus-plus-plus-plus-plus” grade on the U.S. economy in a recent interview with Politico cited by The Guardian, Trump is living in a fantasy world while he drives the U.S. economy into a possible recession.

The University of Michigan sentiment survey on how consumers currently think about our economy hit a new low in March. “Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment,” said survey Director Joanne Hsu

Hsu also said year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025.

What if our military has been fighting the wrong war? What if Iran has the capability that Ukraine has shown with its drone technology, though vastly smaller than Russia’s military?

The lessons from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan have already been forgotten if President Trump does escalate another Gulf War; by the “worst and dumbest.”

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

What, Another Great Recession?

 Financial FAQs

 “The conflict with Iran has already put fresh stress on the U.S. economy, as businesses are reporting rising prices, fewer orders and a decline in employment. A survey of service-oriented companies — the sector that employs most Americans — fell to an 11-month low of 51.1 in March from 51.7 in the prior month, S&P Global said Tuesday.” MarketWatch

FREDpayrolls

Maybe we shouldn’t be looking at the 1970’s era of stagflation for the kind of economic damage from the Iran War and closing of the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipments. There is a short-term spike in oil prices, though oil from other sources than the Gulf can eventually make up the difference in supplies.

The war’s damage may take longer to materialize but look more like the Great Recession, which we shouldn’t forget was a worldwide recession that occurred in 2008-09, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

We shouldn’t forget that the Great Recession Bush/Cheney and their oil barons ultimately spawned with the ill-planned invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan was based on lies about the weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein didn’t have.

And now Trump and his Robber Barons are taking the Gilded Age dreams of William Mckinley one step further with lies that Iran is preparing nuclear weapons to justify the ill-prepared war with Iran while aliening the allies that would help them succeed.

This is even though Trump’s just-resigned Counterterrorism czar Joe Kent said Iran posed no imminent threat with nuclear weapons.

The Great Recession was caused by more than the Bush wars on terror, of course. It was caused by putting too many regulation-cutting foxes in the Bush/Cheney hen house that literally resulted in the failure of nonbank banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers to fail.

Trump is following the same playbook by gutting the government’s regulatory agencies that could prevent the blatant fraud occurring with the Trump administration’s Bitcoin investments that have no regulations or backing with assets.

This time negative GDP growth could come from the faltering labor market, which is frozen in place with almost no net new job creation at all in 2015 as highlighted in the above FRED graph. Fed Chair Powell remarked at his latest press conference that they were torn over whether to cut interest rates or raise them because Trump’s immigrant deportations were causing a labor shortage.

Economic growth ground to a halt as well in 2008, even when Fed Chair Greenspan anxiously began to cut interest rates to prevent the near failure of our banking system.

Powell’s Fed Governors also predicted overall GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2026, even though Q4 2025 Real GDP growth slowed from 1.4 to just 0.7 percent. So I don’t understand the Fed’s optimism over economic growth.

And history has shown that no job growth will ultimately lead to no economic growth,

The frightening truth is that both Republican administrations have made bad decisions for the same wrong reasons.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why Start A War?

 Financial FAQs

“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in January and 0.4 percent in December 2025. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest 12- month advance since increasing 3.4 percent in February 2025.” BLS.gov

FREDppi

Why start a war when President Trump’s tariffs are already raising the cost of everything? Because “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social last week.

Who makes a lot of money? Most Americans could be losing a lot of money over the sudden rise in energy prices it is precipitating, but not his family and oil buddies, obviously.

His thoughtless remarks have put him in a bind, which is why he is lashing out at allies and enemies alike because they don’t want to fix the damage it is causing.

Right now it is the boost it has given to wholesale inflation. The Producer Price Index for wholesale goods, imported goods in the main, is climbing again.

And the tariff question is far from settled with the Trump administration required to pay back much of the $1.4 billion in tariffs that were illegal, according to the Supreme Court.

We add to that the resignation of Joe Kent, Trump’s top counter terrorism appointment, who said Trump attacked Iran because Netanyahu told him to, not because of some imminent danger. The former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center said “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation”.

So with the Strait of Hormuz closed that is choking off 20 percent of the world’s oil supply from going anywhere, the PPI wholesale cost of things is now the highest since February 2025.

This is probably why Fed Chair Powell announcement after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting that there was little chance of more than one rate cut in 2026, and maybe even a rate hike if Trump can’t stop the bombing and find a way to call the bombing campaign a victory. He must also find a way to open the Strait of Hormuz, of course.

The Federal Reserve stuck to its guns that one interest-rate cut this year was likely, but stressed conflict in the Middle East made its forecast uncertain. The Fed voted 11 to 1 to leave its key rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

BEA.gov

The Fed Governors also predicted overall GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2026, even though Q4 2025 Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.7 percent. So I don’t understand the Fed’s optimism over economic growth.

The real culprit behind slowing GDP growth is less consumer spending. Fewer consumers are holding jobs for starters, and essentials like gas and electricity prices are soaring because of the Iran war as well as the tariffs.

So, the Fed wants to lower rates further to encourage more hires but rising inflation is holding them back. And Powell at his press conference said that conditions would have to be much worse for signs of stagflation such as occurred in the 1970s with the OPEC oil embargo.

Powell and the Fed Governors were surprisingly upbeat about our economic future, which is strange when Trump has started a war he never really planned or adequately prepared for.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

What Gulf War?

 Financial FAQs

“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for January increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.1 percent from one year ago.” BEA.gov

FREDBrentcrude

Oil prices spiked again on Thursday morning (to $94.35 per barrel) per the above graph on Brent crude oil prices, after Iran’s new leader said the crucial Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and that Iran will continue attacks on its Gulf neighbors,.

And the Fed’s favored inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures core rate of inflation, which omits food and energy, rose by 0.4%. The core rate rose 3.1% in the 12 months ended in January, up from 3.0% in the prior month. It’s the highest rate in almost two years and decidedly not what the Fed wanted to see.

So, this is causing all the financial market indexes to plunge once again as it’s becoming increasingly obvious that Trump has no good reason for attacking Iran that is now morphing into another Gulf War.

“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” said the IEA in its March report released on Thursday that was cited by MarketWatch. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused Gulf countries to cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, the energy body added.

So why shouldn’t President Trump’s new Gulf War repeat the 1970’s Arab Oil Embargo (OPEC) stagflation—slowing economic growth + higher inflation—that caused several recessions and resulted in the double-digit inflation of the era, I said last week.

I’m not the only one bringing up the similarities to 1970’s stagflation. Nobel economist Joseph Stigliz, a Clinton economic advisor who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001, said in a podcast interview with Jack Farley of “Monetary Matters” released on Wednesday, that “We are facing a risk of stagflation with prices going up because of tariffs and war while growth is slowing.” The 92,000 nonfarm payrolls contraction in February was evidence for the slump in economic activity, he said.

And it’s beginning to show up in slower GDP growth. Real gross domestic product (GDP) barely increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, revised downward from 1.4 percent, according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.

BEA.gov

Oil prices had spiked earlier in June 2025 to $80 per barrel because of the short-lived Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities. That should have been a warning of the potential economic damage from a longer war.

The other shoe to drop will be job creation. We are already in a stagnant job market with the loss of -92,000 jobs in February that basically erased the +126,000 job gain in January. Further losses are being hinted at by other indicators, such as the government’s JOLTS report that has shown no net growth in new hires for months.

It’s becoming more obvious that President Trump’s seeming incoherence over the reasons for his new Gulf war is hiding the real reason he started another Gulf War that he blurted out recently:

“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

The sad truth is that Trump and his oil buddies are profiteering from a war that Americans, and much of the world, will end up paying for.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Very Weak Employment Report

Popular Economics Weekly

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down.” BLS.gov

FREDpayrolls

The U.S. economy lost a total of -92,000 payroll jobs in February and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4 percent occurred just when President Trump began his Middle East war.

What timing! It will be an unmitigated disaster, not only because it will be so badly done, but because of its timing. We will soon have soaring inflation, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 1970’s decade of stagflation, and the American public doesn’t want it, per the latest PEW Research poll:

· Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall.

· By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%).

· Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report basically cancelled out the +126,000 job gain in January, which may be a predictor of what’s to come this year with a looming economic stagnation.

Included was the loss of -69,000 healthcare workers employed in December and January, currently the highest job growth sector, because of a Kaiser Health employee strike which has since been settled.

It’s not a pretty picture. Every other sector lost jobs except for social assistance workers in February. So why would President Trump go to war when the U.S. economy is losing so many jobs?

Crude oil prices have risen the fastest on record, according to DOW Jones Market Data, and are at $100 per barrel at this writing and still rising.

The U.S. economy is frozen in place because American businesses also want to see what will happen with the tariffs as Trump’s attempts to use another trade statute that may also be illegal without doing the required analysis that justifies the higher levies.

And the Fed can’t move either. With fewer jobs being created it should be dropping interest rates further to stimulate hiring, but oil prices are driving up inflation so it might have to raise interest rates instead to slow rising inflation.

But he would rather rule by fiat, even start a war because Isreal’s Netanyahu is said to have told him Khomeini and his staff would be in one place above ground last Saturday where they could be bombed to oblivion; and they were. What if it had been a meeting to discuss Trump’s latest proposals for peace?

Trump ran his many failed businesses by declaring bankruptcy when they went under, but he can’t do the same with the U.S. economy because it must pay its bills by law. But there are other effects of such mismanagement—U.S. Dollar devaluation, higher interest rates and investors fleeing U.S. financial markets, which they are already doing.

Reuters reports U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years “as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive.”

“In the last six months, U.S.-domiciled investors have pulled some $75 billion from U.S. equity products, with $52 billion flowing out since the start of 2026 alone, the most in the first eight weeks of the year since at least 2010, according to LSEG/Lipper data.”

He won’t be able hide the signs of his mismanagement style in a slowing economy, in other words. If not congress, it will really be a very unhappy consumer who determines what happens next; at the ballot box or elsewhere.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

2020—A Year of Living Dangerously

Popular Economics Weekly 

FRED.gov

There is plenty of speculation on the effects of killing Iran’s Quds Force General Qassem Suleimani. Of course the first question is how Iran will retaliate? But terrorist attacks by its proxies, such as Iraqi militias that were bombed by the U.S., should be the least of our worries.

More important is the effect on world oil prices and economic growth in general, since the only reason the U.S. economy is continuing to grow is very low inflation coupled with very low, recession level interest rates. And that can’t be maintained if oil prices spike for some reason.

Texas intermediate crude prices per barrel stayed in the $100 per barrel range from 2011 to 2015, per the above FRED graph, before coming down to the $50-$60 range in 2015. It was a major reason economic growth hasn’t risen above 2 percent this decade.

I say recession-level rates, since current interest rates were last this low during the Great Recession. The Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates three times last year to boost growth since the manufacturing component has been shrinking for the past 4 months, according to the ISM’s Manufacturing survey.

Wrightson.com

We are skating on thin ice, economically speaking. There were dangerous signals in 2018 when the Fed was raising interest rates to slow down what it saw as incipient inflation and had to reverse course. The stock market plunged, because money was no longer cheap, and it raised fears of such a oncoming recession.

So the unique combination of low rates plus low inflation has kept the U.S. growing in the 11^th year of this recovery from the Great Recession, which is the longest post—World War II recovery on record.

But past history has shown low inflation and interest rates cannot last forever. In fact, as the above FRED CPI retail inflation graph shows, the Federal Reserve has been more than proactive on keeping inflation at the 2-2.5 percent range since 1980, when it reached 12.5 percent because of soaring oil prices in the 1970s 

Anyone remember the Arab oil embargo and long lines at gas stations when OPEC cut off oil supplies to the U.S.?  The result was back-to-back recessions in 1981-82, and another recession in 1991 during the Desert Storm invasion of Kuwait, and just before the 9/11 Trade Center bombings.

The question may not be skyrocketing oil prices now, since the U.S. in now domestically producing more than 7 million barrels per day. But economic growth is already slowing with the tariff wars that have cut foreign trading by almost 25 percent, the UK’s Brexit battle, and now a possible Middle East war. Iran has many ways to create more trouble.

Then why has the U.S. been killing Iran’s leading general and Iraqi militia commanders in the recent drone attacks? Reuters is reporting that Iran-backed militias had already been planning attacks on U.S. installations and civilians with advanced weaponry brought in from Iran.

Whether such intelligence is true or not, a new Middle East war may have already begun.

Harlan Green © 2019

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen