What Will 2015 Bring?

Popular Economics Weekly

We already have an idea of what will happen in 2015. Firstly, job creation should continue to exceed 300,000 payroll jobs per month. Nobelist Paul Krugman is especially optimistic about economic growth, given that we have escaped much of the austerity budget cuts taken by the Eurozone and Japan.

“What about the prospects looking forward? As I’ve pointed out before, business investment has been relatively strong throughout. Residential investment, however, has been very low since 2006, suggesting that there’s a backlog of pent-up demand, which should come into play in an improving job market. So that’s one source of strength. Also, low oil prices are going to be mostly positive, although with some adverse regional effects; more on that in a later post.”

Graph: Trading Economics

We would also posit that current economic growth will remain high in 2015, following consecutive 4.6 and 5 percent growth rates in Q2 and Q3. This is because government hiring will continue to pick up as effects of the Great Recession wear off, which has been the main drag on growth, as Professor Krugman says.

"Since Obama took office, we’ve gained 6.7 million private-sector jobs, compared with just 3.1 million at the same point under Bush. But under Bush we’d added 1.2 million public sector jobs, while under Obama we’ve cut 600,000. The point is that relatively good private sector performance has been masked by public-sector cutbacks; this is the opposite of what you usually hear, but that’s no surprise.”

And Fed Chair Janet Yellen is determined to keep interest rates low until wage and salaries climb above the 2 percent inflation rate, which might happen in 2015 with continuing strong job growth.

The weak growth link remains the housing market, and any improvement will be closely watched by economists. The key will be adequate population growth (with more new household formation), especially from the millennials, children of the baby boomers as we have been saying.

Several housing specialists, including the NAR’s Realtor.com, Jed Kolko of Trulia.com, and even Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index see a better housing market in 2015. But increased household formation of those millennials that have been living with their parents, or renting, are the key. And 2015 looks to be the year when they begin to buy homes, according to Fortune Magazine’s Fortune.com. Historical household formation has been some 1 million new households per year, but has been less than half the historical average since the end of the housing bubble.

Graph: Fortune

Why? Millennials job growth, for one: “In 2014, it’s been a banner year for employment but parsed by age groups those under 35 have been gaining jobs at a 60 percent faster rate than rest – one of the best years for employment was even better for millennials,” said Realtor.com economist Jonathan Smoke in his recent release of the 2015 housing forecast.

And the oldest cohort of 25-34 puts the majority of millennials out of school and getting married. That’s combined with birth rates putting 2014 in the running for highest volume of births in years, as millennials outnumber their baby boomer parents by as much as 10 percent (as much as 88 million vs. 77 million baby boomers).

We will see what else 2015 brings, of course. More new, entry-level homes will have to be built, of course, so builders have to get the message that millennials won’t be able to afford the homes and higher prices tolerated by their parents.

There are indications that home builders are already doing this. For example, CNBC’s Diana Olick reports homebuilder D.R. Horton has a new brand, Express Homes that offers properties at $120,000 to $150,000 in lower priced states such as Texas and Georgia, well below the national median price of a new home, which in March came in at a record $290,000, according to the U.S. Census.

In other words, if and when housing returns to normal growth levels, we should see more sustained overall economic growth for 2015 and beyond.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why Lower Home Sales?

The Mortgage Corner

November existing home sales in November tumbled 6.1 percent, the biggest drop since July 2010, down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million. New-home sales also fell slightly—probably for the same reason. Why? There were plenty of conjectures.

“While the headlines often point to first-time buyers’ reluctance to enter the market as a catalyst to the sluggish housing recovery, today’s report shows inventory needs to climb before it can support more interested buyers,” Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield said. “As homeowners gain trust in the economy, they will be more comfortable leaving their current mortgage and entering the market, thus driving up inventory to support further demand.”

Graph: Calculated Risk

Existing-home inventories increased 2 percent, but are still at post-recession lows. So this makes sense, as refinancing levels have to pick up as well, for homeowners to be able to move up, or downsize their dwellings as they approach retirement. New-home inventories rose slightly from 5.7 to 5.8 months’ supply at the current sales rate.

Graph: Calculated Risk

But it’s also the winter season, with all the obstacles that winter weather brings. And sales dropped to their lowest annual pace since May (4.91 million) but are above year-over-year levels (up 2.1 percent from last November) for the second straight month, says Calculated Risk.

The NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun thought it might have something to do with the stock market, also. “Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,” he said. “The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market.”

So why are for sale inventories still so low? The main reason may be credit tightness, in spite of record low mortgage rates. Both mortgage refinancing and purchase applications are still too low for this stage of the housing recovery. This is while the 30-year fixed conforming rate is down to 3.50 percent for a 1 point origination fee.

When will prospective homebuyers become more trusting of the housing market? It may already be happening. Economist Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index recently reported that homeowners are becoming more optimistic again, with their latest survey now done by Dodge Data & Analytics reporting that homeowners now see housing values appreciating at +5 percent in future years.

“On average over the next 10 years,” asked Professor Shiller of a home owning sample survey, “how much do you expect the value of your property to change each year?” In 2004, a boom year, the average answer was a gain of 12.6 percent, but in succeeding years the figure began to decline, bottoming at 4 percent in 2012. The expected gain rose to 4.2 percent in 2013 and 5.5 percent in mid-2014.”

Are we returning to bubble territory with such low interest rates, as back in 2005? No, according to Dr. Shiller. “…both our data and that of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show higher expectations than they did a couple years ago. But these new expectations are hardly wild: If inflation ran at 2 percent a year, the Federal Reserve’s target, the expected appreciation in housing would be an inflation-corrected 2 percent to 3.5 percent a year. So at the moment, there is no evidence of extravagant bubble thinking.”

Still, there are many homes either with little or no equity, or in outright foreclosure, especially in the older Judicial Foreclosure states of the Midwest and East—some 5 million at last count. And such a ‘shadow’ inventory of distressed housing can only be reduced with further price appreciation, and more job creation. It does look like that might happen in 2015, so stay tuned!

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why Lower Home Sales?

The Mortgage Corner

November existing home sales in November tumbled 6.1 percent, the biggest drop since July 2010, down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million. New-home sales also fell slightly—probably for the same reason. Why? There were plenty of conjectures.

“While the headlines often point to first-time buyers’ reluctance to enter the market as a catalyst to the sluggish housing recovery, today’s report shows inventory needs to climb before it can support more interested buyers,” Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield said. “As homeowners gain trust in the economy, they will be more comfortable leaving their current mortgage and entering the market, thus driving up inventory to support further demand.”

Graph: Calculated Risk

Existing-home inventories increased 2 percent, but are still at post-recession lows. So this makes sense, as refinancing levels have to pick up as well, for homeowners to be able to move up, or downsize their dwellings as they approach retirement. New-home inventories rose slightly from 5.7 to 5.8 months’ supply at the current sales rate.

Graph: Calculated Risk

But it’s also the winter season, with all the obstacles that winter weather brings. And sales dropped to their lowest annual pace since May (4.91 million) but are above year-over-year levels (up 2.1 percent from last November) for the second straight month, says Calculated Risk.

The NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun thought it might have something to do with the stock market, also. “Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,” he said. “The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market.”

So why are for sale inventories still so low? The main reason may be credit tightness, in spite of record low mortgage rates. Both mortgage refinancing and purchase applications are still too low for this stage of the housing recovery. This is while the 30-year fixed conforming rate is down to 3.50 percent for a 1 point origination fee.

When will prospective homebuyers become more trusting of the housing market? It may already be happening. Economist Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index recently reported that homeowners are becoming more optimistic again, with their latest survey now done by Dodge Data & Analytics reporting that homeowners now see housing values appreciating at +5 percent in future years.

“On average over the next 10 years,” asked Professor Shiller of a home owning sample survey, “how much do you expect the value of your property to change each year?” In 2004, a boom year, the average answer was a gain of 12.6 percent, but in succeeding years the figure began to decline, bottoming at 4 percent in 2012. The expected gain rose to 4.2 percent in 2013 and 5.5 percent in mid-2014.”

Are we returning to bubble territory with such low interest rates, as back in 2005? No, according to Dr. Shiller. “…both our data and that of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show higher expectations than they did a couple years ago. But these new expectations are hardly wild: If inflation ran at 2 percent a year, the Federal Reserve’s target, the expected appreciation in housing would be an inflation-corrected 2 percent to 3.5 percent a year. So at the moment, there is no evidence of extravagant bubble thinking.”

Still, there are many homes either with little or no equity, or in outright foreclosure, especially in the older Judicial Foreclosure states of the Midwest and East—some 5 million at last count. And such a ‘shadow’ inventory of distressed housing can only happen with further price appreciation, and more job creation. It does look like that might happen in 2015, so stay tuned!

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Fed’s Yellen—No Inflation In 2015?

Popular Economics Weekly

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has given us a very good holiday gift. that boosted stock and bond prices.  She announced at her post-FOMC meeting press conference that Fed Governor’s see little or no inflation next year. In fact, if falling prices continue in the rest of the world, the Fed may be tempted to not raise interest rates at all next year.

That is a startling conclusion, but she made particular mention of the effects of falling oil prices. They will of course help consumer spending in the developed countries, but the oil exporting countries will be hurt. And lower oil prices also mean less oil is being used, so there is less worldwide demand for energy-based products and services, which means less business activity in general.

“At this point we think it unlikely that it will be appropriate that we will see conditions for at least the next couple of meetings that will make it appropriate for us to decide to begin normalization,” Yellen said at the press conference. The bank’s policymakers meet next in late January again in mid-March, and at the end of April. Most pundits and forecasters say the Fed isn’t likely to change policies until their April meeting, at the earliest.

Graph: Econoday

Consumer price inflation turned down in November on sharply lower gasoline prices plus dips in some core subcomponents. Overall consumer price inflation fell 0.3 percent after no change in October. Energy dropped 3.8 percent, following a 1.9 percent decline the month before. Gasoline plunged 6.6 percent in November after a 3.0 drop in October.

Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation posted at 0.1 percent in November easing from 0.2 percent in October. The Fed’s own target inflation rates were lowered to 1.0 to 1.6 percent in 2015. Within the core, the shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for medical care, airline fares, and alcoholic beverages also rose. In contrast, the indexes for apparel, used cars and trucks, recreation, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and new vehicles all declined in November.

There are others of the same opinion that rates may not rise at all next year. Nobelist Paul Krugman, for instance, has said, “Basically, while (U.S) growth and job creation have finally been pretty good lately, there is so far no sign whatever that the economy is overheating. Core inflation remains below the Fed’s target (the Fed focuses on a different measure that usually runs lower than the CPI, so this report is actually fairly far below target.)

“Add to this troubles abroad — the direct spillover from Russia or even Europe is fairly small, but the rising dollar means that good news on manufacturing may not last — and there is a real risk that any rate hike will turn out to have been a mistake. And it’s a mistake that would be very costly, because it could all too easily set the stage for a Japan/Europe style long-term low-inflation trap (yes, at this point I think we can put the euro area in the same category).”

We also have record high consumer sentiment, which is boosting retail sales, for one.  The expectations component that offers an indication on confidence in the outlook for jobs and income, is up 3 tenths from mid-month and up a very strong 6.5 points from final November. Inflation expectations are very soft reflecting the downdraft underway in oil prices with both the 1-year and 5-year outlooks at 2.8 percent. Today's report will be especially pleasant reading for the nation's retailers.

That should also mean longer term mortgage rates could remain low next year, bringing even more buyers into the housing market (read younger millennial buyers currently renters) and so contributing to the housing recovery.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Near Highs

Financial FAQs

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in November to 105.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and a 0.8 percent increase in September.

It is a further sign of strong U.S. growth in the months ahead, maybe as high as 4 percent over the next 2 quarters. GDP growth has already averaged 4.25 percent over the last 2 quarters.

Graph: Trading Economics

“The increase in the LEI signals continued moderate growth through the winter season,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “The biggest challenge has been, and remains, more income growth. However, with labor market conditions tightening, we are seeing the first signs of wage growth starting to pick up.”

Graph: Econoday

“Widespread and persistent gains in the LEI point to strong underlying conditions in the U.S. economic expansion,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The current situation, measured by the coincident economic index, has been improving steadily, with employment and industrial production making the largest contributions in November.”

Graph: Calculated Risk

Much of the better job numbers come from industrial production that increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October. Manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, with widespread gains among industries. Factory output was well above its average monthly pace of 0.3 percent over the previous five months and was its largest gain since February. It is up 13.2 percent from its low point in 2009, according to Calculated Risk.

Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve also helped to boost growth prospects with her post-FOMC press conference in which she said that the Fed’s rates would not increase until long term job and wage growth showed a sustained pickup.

Nobelist Paul Krugman believes the Fed might wait even longer to raise their rates. “Basically, while growth and job creation have finally been pretty good lately, there is so far no sign whatever that the economy is overheating. Core inflation remains below the Fed’s target (the Fed focuses on a different measure that usually runs lower than the CPI, so this report is actually fairly far below target.)

“In fact, the opposite is happening. Domestic and worldwide inflation continues to fall, largely because of falling oil prices, which signals less use of petroleum products, ergo slowing business activity in other parts of the world. The U.S. seems to be the exception, in what we have come to call a ‘goldilocks economy’—growth without overheating.”

So we seem to have returned to a goldilocks economy much like that the 1990s that sustained high job and economic growth with little or no inflation, thanks to plentiful oil supplies that are projected to last for several years, at least.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

New-Home Construction, Builders’ Optimism Still Rising

The Mortgage Corner

Home builders’ optimism is still high, though builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point in December to a level of 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), following a four-point uptick last month.

Graph: Calculated Risk

“After a sluggish start to 2014, the HMI has stabilized in the mid-to-high 50s index level trend for the past six months, which is consistent with our assessment that we are in a slow march back to normal,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “As we head into 2015, the housing market should continue to recover at a steady, gradual pace.”

What is helping new-home demand is the lack of existing-home inventory. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.6 percent to 2.22 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace – the lowest since March (also 5.1 months).

Meanwhile, new-home construction that would replenish housing inventories is advancing in fits and starts, largely due to uncertain weather conditions and still tough mortgage qualification standards that lenders have only recently begun to ease. Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,028,000. This is 1.6 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,045,000 and is 7.0 percent below the November 2013 rate of 1,105,000.

Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 677,000; this is 5.4 percent below the revised October figure of 716,000, but double the number of multiple units being started. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 340,000.

Graph: Calculated Risk

Another reason for builders’ optimism and healthy new-home construction is the pickup in U.S. employment. Private non-farm payrolls increased 321,000 in November and the jobless rate held at 5.8 percent. The competition for jobs is also dropping, with just 1.9 unemployed workers looking for work per job opening, when it was as much as 4 workers per job opening just after the Great Recession.

Also, prospective borrowers may find it easier to get a loan in 2015 as some lenders, encouraged by federal regulators, ease standards. In addition, mortgage rates are still low, enabling qualified borrowers to get relatively cheap loans. For example, 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgage rates with as little as 5 percent down have dropped to 3.50 percent in California.

Another reason for the better job numbers is industrial production increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, with widespread gains among industries. The rise in factory output was well above its average monthly pace of 0.3 percent over the previous five months and was its largest gain since February. It is up 13.2 percent from its low point in 2009, according to Calculated Risk.

NAR also recently released its economic and housing forecast for 2015 and 2016. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun is forecasting existing-home sales this year to fall slightly below 2013 (5.1 million) to 4.9 million, and then increase to 5.3 million next year and 5.4 million in 2016. Yun expects the national median existing-home price to rise 4 percent both next year and in 2016.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Retail Sales Portend +4 Percent GDP in 2015

Popular Economics Weekly

We have said that the prospect of higher interest rates next year may spur some extraordinary growth over the next few quarters, and just out holiday retail sales seem to be fulfilling that prophecy.  Consumer spending is returning to pre-recession levels, and this is without the boost from housing refinance that drove the housing bubble.

Retail sales are soaring even with lower gasoline prices (since retail prices not adjusted for inflation), up 5.1 percent YoY. This put sales back to pre-recession levels. Sales in November posted a 0.7 percent boost after rebounding 0.5 percent in October. Autos in particular jumped a huge 1.7 percent after gaining 0.8 percent in October. And retail sales ex-plunging gasoline prices increased by 6.0 percent on a YoY basis.

Graph: Calculated Risk

Couple that with the highest U. of Michigan consumer sentiment since before the Great Recession, and we can see why consumers are spending more. It can’t be only falling gasoline prices creating more optimism. Payroll jobs are now increasing some 300,000 per month, which heartens householders’ future financial prospects.

Graph: Calculated Risk

Sentiment surged to 93.8 for the mid-month December reading vs an already strong 88.8 in final November and 89.4 in mid-month November. This is the strongest reading since January 2007. The current conditions component is up 3.0 points from final November to 105.7 in a gain that signals month-to-month strength in consumer activity this month. The expectations component, though lagging at 86.1, is up a very sharp 6.2 points to signal rising confidence in the outlook for income and jobs, as we said.

Graph: Econoday

The prospects for faster growth over the next 2 quarters at least may also have to be due to the possibility of higher interest rates next year, as we have been saying. But we still have severe price-cutting in many retail areas, and wholesale prices have been flat for several months.

And the Fed is worried about falling prices at both the wholesale and retail levels, rather than inflation at the moment, so don’t look for Janet Yellen’s Fed to begin to raise their short term rates, until prices have firmed and begin to climb again.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

The Economic Consequences of Too Much Inequality

Financial FAQs

A new report released by the World Economic Forum, ranks rising inequality as the top trend facing the globe in 2015, according to a survey of 1,767 global leaders from business, academia, government and non-profits, many of whom convened recently in Dubai.

Its effects are barely known to economists, much less politicians. The U.S. has far and above the greatest income inequality in the developed world, as well as the highest crime and prison incarceration rates. Yet even economists such as Nobelist Paul Krugman can’t agree that this has had a measurable effect on economic growth!

Graph: The Spirit Level

Then what economic growth are we discussing when so many working age men (and women) are in prison, 2,300,000 at last count, the minimum wage is still $7.25 in most states, and we have had 5 recessions since 1980? Economists can’t be looking at the 90 percent of Americans that haven’t experienced any economic growth since 2009, and the recovery from the Great Recession.

The soaring inequality today matches that of 1928 before the Great Depression, and it is causing irreparable damage to our economy. Yet very little has been done about it, other than the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s $835 billion stimulus package of 2009 that saved or created some 3 million jobs according to the Congressional Budget Office, but whose effect petered out quickly in 2010 and reduced GDP growth to 2 percent until recently.

Economic growth has resumed with 321,000 nonfarm payroll jobs created in November, but 8 million jobs and at least $6 trillion in economic output were lost during the Great Recession, and . And with a Republican congress taking over in January, economic forecasters such as Macroeconomic Advisors are not optimistic about more job creating programs in the works due to a resumption of the budget battles soon to come, in spite of Republican protestations from new Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that there will be no more government shutdowns.

Joel Prakken, a Macroeconomic Advisors co-founder, cited the effect further budget battles could have on growth in the New York Times. Past fights and the ensuing downgrade of U.S. government debt has cost approximately 1 percent in economic growth, which means instead of the 2.15 GDP growth average since Republicans took over the House in 2011, we could have had 3 percent plus growth and many more jobs.

How does inequality most affect growth? The classic answer is that since consumers power some 70 percent of economic activity, their spending power must be the driver of growth, and they cannot spend or save more with declining incomes, as the graph should make abundantly clear.

But it must be a quality of life issue, as well. How can we continue to live well in the most violent society in the developed world, with outmoded public infrastructure and educational facilities?

Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett’s The Spirit Level, a 30-year study of the effects of inequality, has said it best.

“Research has shown that greater inequality leads to shorter spells of economic expansion and more frequent and severe boom-and-bust cycles that make economies more vulnerable to crisis,” say Wilkinson and Pickett. “The International Monetary Fund suggests that reducing inequality and bolstering longer-term economic growth may be "two sides of the same coin". And development experts point out how inequality compromises poverty reduction.”

The consequences of growing inequality are too great to ignore.  We now know from history what they are—two great economic downturns that can only be corrected with a return to the values that have made the U.S. great—economic justice for all.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Will 2014 Be Best Employment Year Since 1999?

Popular Economics Weekly

Calculated Risk’s Bill McBride has just come out with a noteworthy prediction. This could be the best year for private employment since 1999.

“The consensus is the economy will add another 220 thousand jobs in November (215 thousand private sector jobs).   If that happens, 2014 will be the best year for private employment since 1999.”

Well, that benchmark has already been broken with the November payrolls increase of 321,000 just out, making 2014 already the best jobs year since the 1990s. The best news was that hourly wages rose 0.9 percent and the part time, looking for work crowd shrank to 11.4 million, a big number but declining at last, as more workers found full time work.

Graph: Calculated Risk

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised upwards to 271,000, and the change for October was revised to 243,000, so that employment gains in September and October combined were 44,000 more than previously reported.

Why such a jump in payrolls? It could be the looming rise in interest rates. The Fed has said they will begin to raise their record low interest rates sometime next year, given that wages and salaries show more life than the current 2.1 percent per annum increases that just keep up with inflation.

That means there will be a rush to invest and build more housing and some public infrastructure before higher interest rates kick in. And it’s already starting. Construction spending just surged 1.1 percent.

Graph: Calculated Risk

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $971.0 billion, 1.1 percent above the revised September estimate of $960.3 billion. And more public construction projects are kicking in, which has been a drag on construction until now. But state and the federal government revenue coffers are filling again, which gives them the latitude to fix what hasn’t been fixed since 1009, the end of the Great Recession.

Spending on private construction was a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent above the revised September estimate of $688.0 billion. Residential construction was 1.3 percent above the revised September estimate of $349.1 billion when seasonally adjusted. Nonresidential construction sank 0.1 percent below the revised September estimate of $338.9 billion, but that should be temporary, as businesses get the message that interest rates will be up next year.

And look at public construction. In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $278.6 billion, 2.3 percent above the revised September estimate of $272.3 billion.

And Bill McBride’s prediction was right on. “At the current pace (through November), the economy will add 2.89 million jobs this year (2.80 million private sector jobs),” he says.  “This is the best year since 1999 (and, for private employment, this might be the best year since 1997).”

The year 1997 was the best year with 3,408,000 jobs created, but the top 4 years were all in President Clinton’s last term, 1996 to 1999, when he also created 4 consecutive years of budget surpluses.

We therefore see the looming interest rate rises pushing more job formation (and wage rises), which will continue to boost GDP growth. This is when GDP has already risen an average 4.25 percent over the last 2 quarters. Therefore economic growth could be climbing to dizzying heights the next few quarters, so stay tuned!

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

GDP Growth Higher, Case-Shiller Prices Steady

The Mortgage Corner

The economy in the second and third quarters posted its best back-to-back growth in 11 years, And the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed strong growth over the next six months. offering fresh evidence that the U.S. will enter the new year with good momentum.

The government last Tuesday said gross domestic product rose at a 3.9 percent annual pace in the third quarter instead of 3.5 percent. Combined with a 4.6 percent gain in the second quarter, the U.S. has posted its best six-month stretch of growth since the middle of 2003.

Graph: Trading Economics

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 105.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September, and no change in August.

“The LEI rose sharply in October, with all components gaining over the previous six months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite a negative contribution from stock prices in October, and minimal contributions from new orders for consumer goods and average workweek in manufacturing, the LEI suggests the U.S. expansion continues to be strong.”

The largest of the 10 contributors were manufacturer’s new orders, up some 10 percent, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate dropping from 2.62 percent to 2.21 percent, boosting consumer spending and housing sales.

“The upward trend in the LEI points to continued economic growth through the holiday season and into early 2015,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “This is consistent with our outlook for relatively good, but not great, consumer demand over the near term. Going forward, there are continued concerns about slow business investment and lackluster income growth.”

 

Graph: Econoday

S&P/Case-Shiller reported almost half of major cities tracked in Tuesday’s housing data saw prices fall in September, while almost half saw them rise,. Overall, the gauge of home prices in 20 cities was basically unchanged in September, ticking down .03 percent, a sign the summer sales market has ended.

Annnual growth cooled as well, with year-over-year home prices rising 4.9 percent in September — the slowest pace since October 2012 — compared with annual growth of 5.6 percent in August.

Here’s a chart summarizing the results:

The leaders were Charlotte, NC, and Miami, while the year-over-year leaders in price rises were again Miami, Las Vegas and San Francisco. With the Federal Housing Finance Authority loosening some conforming mortgage qualification standards, and if conforming interest rates remain below 4 percent, we could see overall housing prices stabilize and maybe even begin to rise again in 2015.

But it all depends on the jobs market, of course, and we see robust job growth continuing into the first half of 2015, as well, before the Fed begins to raise their short term interest rates.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Republicans Just Don’t Get It--II

Financial FAQs

Why don't Republicans get it? The 11 million illegal immigrants who have lived and raised families in the U.S. is the latest millstone around their necks that derails any hope of a Republican presidency. Last year a bi-partisan Senate passed a bill on a 68 to 32 vote that would eventually allow them citizenship, but John Boehner refused to bring it up to a House vote.

And so President Obama just issued a directive that will defer 5 million illegals from any legal action, which polls show 85 percent of Hispanics support. And we are a country founded by immigrants with every ethnic and racial group protected by our constitution.

Republicans haven’t really gotten it since the 1970s, when they supported policies to maximize profits at the expense of jobs and household incomes by weakening government oversight and regulations. It is a well-documented story of poor job creation and middle class income reductions that enabled the massive transfer of wealth (and power) to business owners and corporate CEOs—the investor class—and away from their employees that has continued today.

Forbes.com

Yet a country is only as strong and able to care for and protect its citizens as its government. That’s been the history lesson that today’s Republican leaders have forgotten—the lessons that earlier Republicans knew. It was Republican Presidents, such as Eisenhower that built our freeway system (when the maximum income tax rate was 92 percent), and President Nixon signed the Clean Air Act with a unanimous Senate.

The 1970s soon changed such cooperation. Republicans and their business interests began creating policies that made government more business friendly and less middle class friendly. Maybe it was the Arab Oil Embargo and the realization of how vulnerable we were to a disruption of energy supplies. It was also the era of so-called stagflation that lasted until 1980 with its sky high inflation and devalued assets.

We saw the growth business friendly lobbies, such as the Business Roundtable that began to spend heavily to influence elections and ease trade restrictions. That’s when President Reagan sounded the death knoll for unions (and collective bargaining) with the firing of Air Traffic Controllers in the PATCO strike. Corporations suddenly found it easier to terminate their employees and export those jobs and manufacturing plants overseas.

Household incomes began to shrink forever after, as President Reagan pushed through cuts in the maximum income tax rates for the wealthiest that had enabled Presidents Eisenhower to build our public infrastructure (when the maximum income tax rate was 92 percent), and Johnson to finance the Great Society that lowered poverty rates.

It was the beginning of President Reagan’s Trickle Down economic policies that his Budget Director David Stockman (in The Triumph of Politics) soon realized created horrendous budget deficits, with very little trickling down to the middle classes and below.

It made the conservatives credo of self-sufficiency a lie, as Republicans now blocked any attempt to raise the minimum wage. For how could families be self-sufficient and live on a minimum wage, unless they held two and three jobs, thus harming their families, and children of any chance for a good education?

Republicans have continued their all-out assault on government with their attempts to defund Obamacare that how insures tens of millions for the first time at lower costs, while continuing their efforts to privatize social security and Medicare.

Even public safety has been compromised with their refusal to help states rebalance their budgets that resulted in the loss of so many public employees during the Great Recession, such as police and teachers.

There is in fact no area that Republicans haven’t weakened the public commonweal. Every one of the Democrats’ infrastructure and job creation bills since 2011 have been blocked by either Senate or House Republicans in the name of paying down the public debt. Yet the productivity improvements and increased tax revenues generated by those jobs and an upgraded infrastructure are the only way to pay down that debt. And Republicans backed by their conservative lobbyists will no doubt continue to do so, until our road and bridges are no longer drivable.

It is a sad state of affairs when Republicans are no longer the wealth creators, but have become the party of no. Instead of finding ways to increase our productive capacity and boost household incomes, which are the real wealth creators, they continue to benefit the few at the top of the food chain, most of whom are only interested in enriching themselves.

PS—In an update of the 2012 jobs chart shown above, more net jobs have been created under Obama — 5,142,000 as of the August jobs report — than under George H.W. Bush — 2,637,000 — and George W. Bush — 1,282,000 — combined, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Harlan Green © 2014

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Republicans Just Don’t Get It

Financial FAQs

There is a reason why it has taken so long to emerge from the Great Recession. And the Republican leaders of the House and Senate with their new majorities exemplify why we have barely emerged from it.

They continue to attempt to downsize government and regulations of any kind, including Dodd-Frank, when it was the lack of adequate regulation during Republican GW Bush’s term that caused the financial meltdown and Great Recession. This is while the lack of government spending on basic public works projects has been a major drag on economic growth.

There was a consequent output decline of more than 6 percent of GDP from the Great Recession—that’s 6 percent of the now $16 trillion in goods and services that were never produced, while some 8 million workers lost their jobs causing incalculable damage to families and communities.

Yet Republicans still intone the same rote messages that regulation of any kind is harmful.

"The administration's biggest hit on the economy has been the aggressive over-regulation that has descended on virtually all of American private enterprise and that's the reason we've had such a slow recovery after the Great Recession of 2008," said new Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. "It's reasonable to assume that we'll be pushing back against this bureaucratic excess across the board."

And House Speaker John Boehner quickly listed his major priorities--“Fix our broken Tax Code, address the debt that’s hurting our economy and imprisoning the future of our kids and grandkids, reform our legal system, reshape our regulatory policy to make bureaucrats more accountable, and give parents more choices in a system that isn’t educating enough of America’s children.”

But Republicans haven’t helped. They have fought almost every growth stimulus program, and tanked the economy to boot, with the debt ceiling debacle that shut down government and downgraded the government debt.

Now they want to do it again with their new majorities. In an attempt to keep their diminishing power base, they restrict voters’ right, collective bargaining and oppose minimum wage programs of any kind that would increase household incomes.

They believe supply stimulates demand, which is supply-side economics, when it is exactly the opposite. Producing ever more things without the means to buy them depresses prices, which depresses profits.

Whereas boosting incomes increases the demand for goods and services that stimulates supply and profits, which comes from increased household incomes. So when they oppose raising the minimum wages and collective bargaining, they are literally restricting the growth of household incomes, and so growth.

And the result is a very deflationary environment that becomes a vicious circle. Falling prices that in turn mean falling incomes and rising unemployment. It’s as simple as that, yet Republicans don’t seem to get it.

It has also led to the greatest income and wealth inequality since 1928--the last time we had a Great Depression.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Housing Picks Up, Builder Confidence Highest in 7 Years

The Mortgage Corner

Builders are most optimistic about single family homes, and the youngest adults are finally beginning to leave their parents’ nest, apparently. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo gauge rose four points to 58 in November, near the highest level in nine years. Readings above 50 signal that builders, generally, are optimistic about sales trends.

“Low interest rates, affordable home prices and solid job creation are contributing to a steady housing recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “After a slow start to the year, the HMI has remained above the 50-point benchmark for five consecutive months, and we expect the momentum to continue into 2015.”

Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,009,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,038,000, but is 7.8 percent above the October 2013 rate of 936,000.  Single-family housing construction in October rose to 696,000 units; 4.2 percent above the revised September figure of 668,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 300,000.

Why the optimism? More young buyers, a key segment of the housing market, are beginning to find jobs. This makes them more likely to buy an entry-level home, with rents rising as fast as 10 percent annually in some markets. Last Friday’s unemployment report showed signs that this group is getting closer to be able to buy a home, which would, in turn, help other families find a new home.

Graph: Trulia.com

Among 25- to 34-year olds, the share who were employed hit 76.2 percent in October, according to Trulia.com—the greatest proportion since the end of 2008—and up from 74.8 percent a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And those younger buyers are already making a difference, as total existing-home sales rose 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million in October. Sales are at their highest annual pace since September 2013 (also 5.26 million) and is the First Year-Over-Year Increase since October 2013, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Graph: Calculated Risk

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun says the housing market this year has been a tale of two halves. “Sales activity in October reached its highest annual pace of the year as buyers continue to be encouraged by interest rates at lows not seen since last summer, improving levels of inventory and stabilizing price growth,” he said. “Furthermore, the job market has shown continued strength in the past six months. This bodes well for solid demand to close out the year and the likelihood of additional months of year-over-year sales increases.”

And though housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.6 percent to 2.22 million existing homes available for sale, a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, unsold inventory is now 5.2 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.11 million existing homes available for sale.

Economists will mine this data for signs that more Millennials are buying homes, but as job growth continues to pick up (weekly initial jobless claims have stayed below 300,000 now for 10 consecutive weeks), this is surely a portent for continued increase in new and existing-home sales in 2015.

Harlan Green © 2014

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Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Lowest Since 2007

The Mortgage Corner

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.85 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2014. This is approaching the historical average of 4.25 percent with those eastern and Midwestern states that conduct judicial foreclosures lagging the mostly western states that conduct Trust Deed auctions in clearing their books of delinquent loans.

The delinquency rate decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter and reached the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. Whereas the delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are even lower—2.05 percent for “seriously delinquent” mortgages more than 90 days late in payments.

Graph: Calculated Risk

So it is another sign of the housing recovery. All areas of distress are lower, and housing prices continue to rise, though more slowly than last year. Housing price for homes with Fannie Mae guaranteed loans are up 5.9 percent YoY, and 6.1 percent for Freddie Mac guaranteed loans.

“Delinquency rates and the percentage of loans in foreclosure fell to their lowest levels since 2007,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist. “We are now back to pre-crisis levels for most measures. Foreclosure starts were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis, but increased slightly in the raw data. Given that this measure reached the lowest level in eight years last quarter, and given the continued decline in delinquency and foreclosure inventory rates, we expect that the increase in the unadjusted starts rate is just regular seasonal fluctuation.”

The problem is mainly in the eastern states that have judicial foreclosures which must be processed through the courts, which is a very time-consuming process. For instance, Nevada is the only non-judicial state in the top 10, and this is partially due to state laws that slow foreclosures (D.C added some new foreclosure mediation requirements).

The top states are New Jersey (7.96 percent in foreclosure, down from 8.10 percent in Q2), Florida (6.12 percent), New York (5.72 percent) and Maine (4.29 percent).  Former bubble states California (1.05 percent) and Arizona (0.85 percent) are now far below the national average by every measure.

Graph: Calculated Risk

This graph that dates from 2006 shows the difference. The blue line charts Judicial foreclosures (blue line) down to 4.20 percent of inventories, while Non-judicial foreclosures (dotted blue line) have fallen to 1.27 percent on inventories.

And interest rates are back to historical lows with ultra-low inflation. Thirty-year conforming fixed rates are now 3.75 percent in California, for instance. And such low inflation could be around for years to come, as there is oversupply in most commodities, including oil, that is feeding the deflationary environment.

This is good news for the housing market and real estate in general, as it makes housing more affordable for even entry-level buyers who have been priced out of the housing market during this recovery.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment Boosting Holiday Cheer

Popular Economics Weekly

Retail Sales are growing again, and U. of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment is also spiking at the right time of year for holiday sales. That’s because job openings and hires in the September JOLTS report are bringing US closer to full employment. This is especially in some high growth areas of the country, such as California’s Silicon Valley, where unemployment rates have dropped to the low 4 percent range in September.

Graph: Calculated Risk

Retail sales ex-gasoline surged by 5.1 percent on a Year-over-Year basis--4.1 percent for all retail sales—which is somewhat misleading because sales aren’t adjusted for inflation, which has been falling. Retail outlets now routinely offer 20 percent discounts for goods of all kinds, except for luxury goods, due to depressed household incomes. So sales volumes’ have probably been rising faster than the indicators.

Fallen incomes have been the overall problem, and the reason for the slow recovery, since lower incomes depress prices which leads to decreased demand for those goods and services. But the latest JOLTS report is heartening. There were 4.7 million job openings on the last business day of September, barely changed from 4.9 million in August, but the Quits and Hiring levels are surging.

Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs, and is a major employment  indicator liked by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. The number of quits increased from 2.5 million in August to 2.8 million in September. This was the highest level of quits since April 2008. And companies hired 5.03 million people in September, which is the highest number since December 2007, just as the Great Recession started.

The following graph from Calculated Risk shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Lastly, the preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November was at 89.4, up from 86.9 in October. This was above the consensus forecast of 87.5 and is at the highest level since 2007 in this graph that dates back to 1980.  So we can see that it has yet to climb above 90 to reach sentiment that prevailed during full employment periods that prevailed especially during the 1990s.

Graph: Calculated Risk

So once again, we are seeing the Goldilocks economy at work. It’s not running too hot (high inflation), or too low (there is good job creation). It is household incomes that need to rise, which should happen as we creep towards full employment. Full employment won’t be reached until the unemployment rate is in the 4 percent range these days, given the 11.1 million in underemployed and unemployed workers looking for work or wanting full time jobs.

That’s why most economists aren’t predicting that full employment will be achieved until sometime in 2016.  Guess what else is happening in 2016!

Harlan Green © 2014

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California’s Budget Surplus Leads to Credit Upgrade

Popular Economics Weekly

A day after voters passed Proposition 2, which creates a “rainy day fund” to cushion the state budget from future economic downturns, major credit-rating house Standard & Poor’s on Wednesday upgraded California’s general obligation bond rating. S&P raised the state’s credit rating from A to A-plus, citing the stability offered by Proposition 2.

But it’s more than that. California’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.8 percent in September, according to the State Unemployment Office and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The San Francisco Bay area led the way with San Francisco and the surrounding counties’ jobless rates in the low 4 percent, which in essence means full employment.

Proposition 2, championed by Gov. Jerry Brown and passed by the Legislature on a bipartisan vote, requires the state to set aside funds, especially when revenue from taxes on capital gains is high, to both pay down debt and create a reserve that can be tapped only when the state is in fiscal distress.

What happened to the California economy that several years ago was pronounced dead or dying by its critics, conservatives determined to downsize government with budget and tax cuts to punish everyone, except the wealthiest? Governor Jerry Brown did just the opposite—raised more revenues to stimulate job growth, at a time of record low interest rates, as the S&P upgrade noted.

Californians won the battle of economic ideologies that has blocked so much growth in the rest of the country; such as with Kansas, the poster child for cutting government programs that has set its economy in reverse.

“The upgrades follow voter approval on Nov. 4, 2014, of a strengthened budget stabilization account under Proposition 2,” S&P analyst David Hitchcock said in a statement. “In our view, the new state constitutional provision will partially mitigate California's volatile revenue structure by setting aside windfall revenue for use during periods when state tax revenue could fall materially short of forecast.”

And California now has a very large budget surplus, because of it. State Controller John Chiang in a press release just released his monthly cash report for the month of June, and announced that the state's General Fund -- the primary account from which California funds its day-to-day operations and programs -- ended the fiscal year with a positive cash balance for the first time since June 30, 2007.

A positive cash balance means that the state had funds available to meet all of its payment obligations without needing to borrow from Wall Street or the $23.8 billion available in its more than 700 internal special funds and accounts.

And what about California’s drought could badly hurt future growth? Voters also overwhelming approved Proposition 1 was to address water conservation and climate change problems that could create even more severe water shortages in the future.

"At its core, Proposition 1 advances an all-of-the-above strategy that includes everything from local resources to water storage to safe drinking water," said Timothy Quinn, executive director of the statewide Association of California Water Agencies. "Other states facing similar challenges may learn from that approach."

And that is the point. California, once thought the economic basket case, has instead become the model that both red and blue states should follow.

Harlan Green © 2014

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Jobless Rate Falls to 5.8 Percent—Why be unhappy?

Financial FAQs Weekly

Nonfarm payroll jobs advanced 214,000 in October after gaining 256,000 September and 203,000 in August. Net revisions for August and September were up 31,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.8 percent in October from 5.9 percent in September. So why were voters Tuesday so pessimistic about the economy and jobs?

Graph: Marketwatch

Job creation in October marked the ninth straight month the economy has added 200,000 jobs or more, a feat last accomplished in 1994. The U.S. has created some 2.3 million jobs this year and is on track for the biggest gain in almost a decade. What’s more, job openings recently hit a 13-year high while layoffs have fallen to the lowest level since the turn of the century, says Marketwatch.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell again as more than half a million people found work, according to a survey of households. And another 400,000-plus joined the labor force, a good sign because it means people think more jobs are available.

But wages are still rising 2 percent per year, which is just keeping up with inflation. And the U-6 measure of so-called underemployed is still 11 percent, which includes not just those who are unemployed, but those who are “marginally attached” to the workforce as well as those who want a full-time job but can only work a part-time job.

These are some of the reasons that voters were unhappy at last Tuesday’s election. Exit polls after Tuesday’s midterm elections showed that just one-third of Americans think the economy is getting better, and an even larger number believe the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction.

Goods-producing jobs increased 28,000 in October after a 36,000 gain the month before. Manufacturing employment increased 15,000 in October, following a rise of 9,000 in September. Motor vehicles and parts rebounded 3,000, after slipping 1,000 the month before. Construction advanced 12,000 after a gain of 19,000 in September. Mining edged up 1,000 in October, following an 8,000 rise in September.private service-providing jobs gained 181,000 after a 208,000 boost in September. Strength again was seen in professional & business services and retail trade.

The question is why when several times since the 2009 end of the Great Recession, Republican anti-government policies almost drove us back into recession. In 2011, Republicans took the government to the brink of default on its debt (and S&P downgrade of U.S.) , which led to an agreement with Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to cut spending, by automatically sequestering funds if necessary.

A year ago, the Republicans again forced the issue with a 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government, which led to another agreement with the Democrats on spending cuts.

So now that they control both the House and Senate, and new Senate Majority Lead Mitch McConnell says they will no longer be shutting down government, they will have to find a way to work with the Democrats to lose their ‘no compromise’ past.

The problem is Republicans have been wrong on every economic issue that would improve lives—from budget deficits to health care, from tax cuts to public infrastructure spending, environmental safeguards, Dodd-Frank financial regulation; not to speak of their war on contraception, voters’ rights, and collective bargaining that would raise workers’ income—you name it.

They have literally been wrong on every issue that keeps this economy afloat. It is an abysmal record of economic ignorance. How will they change their ways?

Harlan Green © 2014

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Bullies, Not Government Is the Problem

Financial FAQs Weekly

Even though the U.S. economy grew by a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, boosted by a surge in exports and the biggest jump in federal spending in five years, Democrats don’t seem to be taking credit for it.

Why? The bullies are in control, whether they are Republican Tea Partiers that refuse to compromise on any legislation that won’t downsize government programs, the Koch Brothers who fund any candidate or cause that cuts environment regulations, or the NRA, lobbying arm of the gun industry that capitalizes on gun violence to boost weapons sales; they control Washington’s agenda these days.

And it has almost wrecked our economy several times since the 2009 end of the Great Recession. Republicans dare not take credit for it, either. “Anyone who trusts the Republicans hasn’t been paying attention to what their economic policies have been. Instead of focusing on full employment and higher wages, the Republicans have doubled down on the trickle-down policies that have failed so miserably over the past 30-plus years,” says Marketwatch economist Rex Nutting.

In fact, several times since the 2009 end of the Great Recession, Republican anti-government policies almost drove us back into recession. In 2011, Republicans took the government to the brink of default on its debt (and S&P downgrade of U.S.) , which led to an agreement with Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to cut spending, by automatically sequestering funds if necessary.

A year ago, the Republicans again forced the issue with a 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government, which led to another agreement with the Democrats on spending cuts.

Why do we call them bullies? Because they have been able to get away with it. And because it looks like Republicans might gain control of the Senate, it’s Democrats who have been willing to compromise, when their economic agenda has brought the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent, and economic growth above 3 percent over the last 2 quarters.

The problem with dealing with such bullies that say it’s ‘my way or the highway’, is that they take any sign of compromise as a sign of weakness. So when Vice President Biden says, ““[L]ook, we’re — we’re ready to compromise,” bullies see it as a sign of weakness, that they have already won the battle of this midterm election, so there is no need to compromise.

“Going into 2016, the Republicans have to make a decision whether they’re in control or not in control,” the vice president told CNN’s Gloria Borger. “Are they going to begin to allow things to happen? Or are they going to continue to be obstructionists? And I think they’re going to choose to get things done.”

Unfortunately, that is not how to deal with the bully mentality that has pervaded much of today’s politics, as well as our schools. It only happens when there is a leadership vacuum, when strong leaders refuse to step forward that know how to oppose bullies. Yet we know how--history has told US. That’s how we defeated the biggest bullies of all; Hitler and Emperor Hirohito, and even Stalin. Just stand up to them, and only compromise when the bullies are willing to compromise.

Harlan Green © 2014

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Government Spending Boosts Q3 GDP

Popular Economics Weekly

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy grew by a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, fueled by a surge in exports and the biggest jump in federal spending in five years, screamed one headline this morning.

That is all we need to know to understand why US economic growth is finally returning to the long term average that has prevailed since the Great Depression. This is in spite of the Great Recession and a busted housing bubble that is taking years to recover, record wealth inequality that has kept consumers from spending, and ultra-conservative House Republicans that have refused to allow even the most basic public works spending; such as to repair and replace the roads and bridges that have so fallen into disrepair, not to speak of keeping up with the educational needs of a growing population.

Graph: Calculated Risk

This first graph from Calculated Risk shows the increasing contribution to GDP for residential investment (RI) and state and local governments since 2005. It’s the beginning of recovery from the huge slump in RI during the housing bust (blue), followed by the unprecedented period of state and local austerity (red) not seen since the Depression.

It doesn’t tell the whole story, of course, as continuing austerity policies that cut government spending and some taxes in Japan and Europe have kept them in recession, whereas the pro-growth actions of the Fed (and boosting of some taxes) have reduced the budget deficit and kept the US government solvent.

It is a phenomenal recovery, even a miracle that this could even happen with a Congress locked in a battle over ideologies, and race. So it is thanks mainly to Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve QE actions, in particular, part of their pro-growth policies that pushed interest rates (especially long term rates) to record lows, just because the Fed could act outside of politics as usual.

“What’s more, the U.S. is adding jobs at the fastest rate since the recession ended in 2009 and consumers are feeling the most confidence in seven years, buoyed by a rising stock market and falling gasoline prices. As a result, most analysts believe the U.S. is likely to expand at a 3 percent pace or so in the fourth quarter to string together the best stretch of economic growth since before the Great Recession,” said the MarketWatch announcement.

So government spending was the largest contributor, up 10 percent mostly for defense, and exports up 7.8 percent annually. State and local governments’ spending rose 1.3 percent, and consumer spending slowed to a 1.8 percent annual pace from 2.5 percent in the prior quarter.

Business investment on equipment decelerated from the second quarter’s 11.2 percent gain to 7.2 percent, but is still strong. Residential housing investment grew at a low 1.8 percent rate after an 8.8 percent increase in the spring.

What does all this data mean? That there are ways around Congressional gridlock, if the executive branch and Federal Reserve concentrate on pro-growth policies that keep interest rates low, raise taxes sufficiently to lower the budget deficit, lower health care costs, support collective bargaining of employees, as well as lobby for higher household incomes to boost consumer spending (and the housing market).

And best of all, this happened with very low inflation, in spite of warnings that more government spending and the Fed’s QE policies would cause soaring inflation. Instead inflation as measured by the PCE index rose just 1.2 percent annually, down from 2.3 percent in Q2, as cheaper energy prices has kept inflation ultra-low. Even the core PCE that excludes food and energy rose just 1.4 percent.

We can now say officially that we have that goldilocks economy that prevailed through the 1990s; not too hot or too cold that will boost economic growth for years to come, if Congress can be ignored.

Harlan Green © 2014

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen