Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Q4 GDP Growth Improving

Financial FAQs
We are seeing faster economic growth in the fourth quarter, even after the upward revision of Q3 GDP growth to 2.7 percent from 2.0 percent. The reason? The 146,000 jump in November payroll jobs, soaring retail sales, and the Fed’s determination to maintain QE3 with $45 Billion per month in bond purchases for several more years, if necessary, to boost employment. 
This is in spite of Hurricane Sandy that shut down much of the east coast. We can therefore expect that Q4 growth might exceed 3 percent, putting us back on the path to a more normal growth pattern.
Retail sales is leading the growth. Motor vehicle sales rebounded 1.4 percent after a 1.9 percent decrease in October.  Earlier in the month, unit new motor vehicle sales pointed to an even stronger increase but the Commerce Department’s sample size is not as good and all Personal Consumption Expenditure spending may be even stronger.
clip_image002
Graph: Econoday
And industrial production rebounded in November with notable help from Hurricane Sandy and a boost in auto assemblies, up 1.1 percent, following a decline of 0.7 percent in October (originally down 0.4 percent).  The market consensus was for a 0.3 percent gain. Capacity utilization for total industry rose to 78.4 percent from 77.7 percent in October.
The bottom line is that manufacturing has seen sharp swings over the last two months due to Hurricane Sandy.  But net for the period, this sector is still soft.  The clearly positive news is that consumers are out shopping for new cars, which is good news for manufacturing.  It suggests that while consumers are in a bad mood about the pending fiscal cliff, potential tax increases, they are spending despite survey recorded glum views, said Econoday .
clip_image004
And inflation is falling.  Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation came in at 1.8 percent versus 2.2 percent in October (seasonally adjusted). The core rate eased to 1.9 percent in November from 2.0 percent the prior month.
clip_image006
Lastly, the Federal Reserve just announced a new policy at its last FOMC meeting of the year.  It voted to continue with QE3, the $45 Billion in securities’ purchases per month until either the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent from its current 7.7 percent, and/or inflation tops 2.5 percent per year. 
Since it looks like inflation has been subdued, and the Fed believes it will take until 2016 to bring down the unemployment rate to its new target, the Fed could maintain easy credit for several more years, which is the best of all conditions for economic growth to continue.
Harlan Green © 2012

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Saved as a favorite, I really like your blog!
my web page > how to stop acid reflux

Anonymous said...

Moncler Outlet thousands of The Su Hongye in Chongqing something, cannot return in,[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler outlet[/url] wrote that the daughter decide, as long as she said [url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler outlet[/url] the research. the foreign flavor of the new people are very against [url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler coats[/url] the old pick auspicious day for marriage, advocates pick ocean life. that the most unfavorable marriage Gregorian calendar in May, the Gregorian calendar in June is best marriage, but they're already engaged in June, the so extended to early September wedding. It is stated too much focus on date,Monday 23 is a great day for marriage, especially on Wednesday; 4,561 days like a bad day, as a result they pick on Wednesday smiles: must have been that guy to come out of Yuen Long Cao tricks. Mei smiles: short, you hate the European students, pattern names up. Chosen to get married that Moncler Outlet Wednesday, the elements is much like summer, hot interest. The way in which I wanted, Jiao days Fortunately, today I did not do groom. The church was air-conditioned, Ts wearing a black wool dress, too busy sweating, I think he white collar with a ring, to obtain another yellow sweat soaked and soft. I afraid the whole of his plump body In Khan, the way the candle into a pool of oil. Miss Su can also be tight ugly. line up at the wedding, bride and groom smiling face, no expression of Ku Buchu, all unlike the dry wedding, but rather no, not on the scaffold, is a, is, like Moncler Boots a public host to pickpockets signs with punishing those hardened criminals hard. I occur to think that I own marriage ceremony, under those thousands of Kui Kui like to be inevitable cracked pickpockets. That made me realize the type of joyful, smiling faces of happy wedding pictures were never taken to. find! Great find! I am thinking about is to observe how you prefer her within 24 hours. avoided her to not see, just say several words with Miss Tang - chien hop heavy heart that, like truck unloading the parcel the next smash gravitropic only strange Xinmei will not hear - would be a bridesmaid the day, saw me and Moncler Scarf asked me to not fight, said the ceremony complete line, we sprinkle colored paper Fou new body, when, in support of I won't have hands, afraid that I go ahead and take opportunity to throw hand grenades, nitrate sulfuric acid spill. She inquired about later on plans, I informed her to go Sanlv University. I believe she might not wish to hear your company name, and so i did not mention a word you.

more information you can go to http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com

[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler clothing[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]shop moncler[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]monclers[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]monclere[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler darlan[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler gamme bleu[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler outlet italia[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler baby[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler daunenjacke[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]monclet clothing for kid[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler jacken[/url]
[url=http://www.giubbotti-moncleroutlet.com/]moncler shoes[/url]