Minimum Wage Raises Should Boost Spending, Employment

Financial FAQs

Minimum wages are about to rise in several cities, and eventually states. San Francisco and Los Angeles minimums are rose last weekend to $14 and $12 per hour, respectively, and ultimately to $15 per hour by 2021. But Seattle, Washington, Washington D.C., Chicago, Maryland, and New York will be raising their minimum wages, as well.

This should finally boost incomes, and maybe consumption for the rest of 2017. Central Banks are beginning to raise their rates, as well, which means they see stronger growth ahead.

But this all depends on the consumer, as businesses won’t spend and boost hiring until they see consumers spending more. Friday’s unemployment report told us we see growing demand ahead. The various QE programs and extremely low inflation have kept long term rates below 3 percent for several years because consumer incomes have been trending down lately, as I’ve said.

 

Graph: Econoday

For instance, personal income has been struggling, posting only a 3.5 percent year-on-year rate the last two months with the trend line pointing to just under 3 percent, reports Econoday. And that has kept spending in a narrow 4-5 percent range, as well.

Last week’s ISM service sector activity report could mean more hiring ahead, since the service sector employs roughly two-thirds of American workers. Its non-manufacturing survey continues to report extending strength with the index up 5 tenths in June to 57.4. New orders, at 60.5, remain unusually strong with backlog orders, at 52.0, also rising in the month. New orders for export, at 55.0, are also up solidly though to a lesser degree than domestic orders.

“The non-manufacturing sector continued to reflect strength for the month of June. The majority of respondent’s comments are positive about business conditions and the overall economy," said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

But this is anecdotal evidence only, and actual government statistics don’t reveal increased activity yet. Factory orders show manufacturing activity still rising at 5 percent, but autos and aircraft orders are down now, after surging earlier this year.

Manufacturing was once known to have high paying jobs. That's old history with pay, now at about $26.50, only 25 cents above the average. And payroll growth has also been slow with this trend also fighting to stay above zero.

“Backlogs are the bottom line and, despite all the confidence in all the private surveys, they are still under water, says Econoday. “Until unfilled orders pile up, gains for factory payrolls and wage will be limited. Despite a big jump in ISM's employment index, actual factory payrolls rose only 1,000 in Jun

So while jobs continue to be filled, wages aren’t rising in tandem, and that is another sign that there are still 6 million workers looking for jobs. Until that happens we cannot say we have reached full employment.

Harlan Green © 2017

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