How Do We Fix Inflation?

 Financial FAQs

I said last week that: “Many of us remember when a gallon of gas was less the $2, or a quart of milk less than $1, or housing was last affordable in the 1970s. I remember the inflation surges in housing. What happened?”

So, Shouldn’t we as voters be able understand how to fix inflation such as we just experienced with the COVID-19 pandemic? That didn’t happened on November 5. Trump was able to convince most of his voters to blame someone rather than learn what needed to be done, and had already been done, to cure the problem.

It is now doubly important because if Trump raises tariffs and begins to deport undocumented workers on ‘Day One’ of his presidency as promised, inflation will soar again and the U.S. economy will quickly go into a tail spin.

Why couldn’t Trump voters see this? Their anger was fostered by an out of control social media catering to their own interest groups by elevating conspiracy theories and denigating scientific facts to keep their audience rather than what is good for most Americans and the American economy.

It has always been difficult to pierce the fog of propaganda and obfuscation that has dogged anything related to our economy because the U.S. economy is the most complex in the world with its competing mix of private and public enterprise needed to to make it work.

FREDcpi

The retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the FRED graph above dating from 1980 is the eaiest way to understand why we had high inflation spikes and how long it took for it to return to normal.

Simply put, the spikes that hurt most Americans were due to supply shortages mostly out of our control. The 1980 spike was mainly because of an oil shortage that took a decade to reverse. In 2022 the other high spike was the COVID-19 pandemic that shut down supply chains and took approximately three years to recover.

It didn’t matter which political party was in charge—Republicans in 1980 and Democrats in 2022. Both parties had the tools to mitigate the inflation surges that took some time, as I said.

How were they solved? Both political parties used their financial institutions, mainly the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department, and did not disparage them as Trump’s MAGA supporters do as a matter of policy. Because they control the flow of money—regulating whether there is too much (inflationary) or too little (deflationary) money is in circulation to counter the supply disruptions.

But playing the blame game that has enraged so many working class voters doesn’t solve the inflation problem, though it did win enough workers to the Republican side. They now must prove they actually know something about its causes.

What will hinder any good faith effort to tame inflation is the maldistribution of the money supply. Too much of it is in too few hands, a hallmark of what has been called the second Gilded Age that has favored the wealthiest since the 1970s, and not ordinary workers damaged most by higher inflation whose household incomes have stagnated since then.

We have working solutions to the inflation that has plagued the American economy for decades. But deporting undocumented workers and raising tariffs will raise inflation, since tariffs are a tax on imports, and fewer immigrants form the backbone of the supply sector (restaurants, transportation, retail, construction) that has been the mainstay of this recovery. It will cause a labor shortage, which means fewer goods and services will be produced, thus raising the price of things, as well.

This is the most basic of Econ 101 priinciples, but Trump was able to fool his voters because there is a general ignorance of economic principles.

And our capitalist system hasn’t been helping the working class since the 1970s, as I’ve said in past columns. The increasing income inequality created an almost unstoppable anger that grew after decades of income loss for working class voters as more and more wealth was shunted upward creating ever larger budget deficits.

If we are able to reverse the income inequality with more progressive taxation policies that pay for better social benefits, for instance, we might convince more voters to realize government isn’t the problem and inflation is really governed by the common sense rule of supply and demand.

They might then not choose someone who only knows how to blame but rather vote for real economic solutions to mitigate inflation.

Once Roosevelt created the New Deal in response to the Great Depression, governments began to work for ordinary Americans—from social security to a federal minimum wage, to workers rights. Only such a private-public partnership will help to cure our inflation problem.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why the Inflation Problem?

 Financial FAQs

Most of us remember when a gallon of gas was less the $2, or a quart of milk less than $1, or housing was last affordable in the 1970s. I remember the inflation surges in housing. What happened?

Shouldn’t we as voters understand inflation if a majority of voters were so angry about the soaring price of everything that the majority would find somebody to blame (President Biden), and elect somebody else (Donald Trump) who said he will make everything better, even though that didn’t happen during his first term?

It is a peculiar form of American amnesia that caused so many to vote against their own interests—in this case a majority of white women to vote for a sexual predator and abortion opponent, young working class males to support a con-artist who had stiffed or defrauded his own workers and filed bankruptcy multiple times to avoid paying them.

It has to be because everything is happening too fast in our high-Tech driven economy and culture (Internet?) that has left so many people still wanting to live in a world they remember or imagine.

This happened at least once before and signaled how difficult it is for Americans to face forward rather than look backward to a time that never was, even though they crave change. It was first noticed in Thomas Frank’s 2005 best-seller: What’s the Matter With Kansas; How Conservatives Won the Heart of American?

Such nostalgia enabled GW Bush to win a second term, although he started his wars on terror by lying about weapons of mass destruction after failing to anticipate 9/11.

To understand what happened with Trump’s false economic narrative—that Americans were better off financially in his first term—we should understand the complexity of our own economy.

The main priority of Republicans—tax cuts that Bush and Trump Republicans enacted were a giant scam that actually transferred more wealth to their supporters and imp0verished more working Americans, while adding $trillions to the national debt.

But enough Americans remembered an earlier, whiter America that had experienced a victorious, post-World War Two prosperity—until the 1970s and school integration, minorities wanting more rights (including women), the killings of the Kennedy brothers and Martin Luther King, Jr., and a Vietnam War tore our country apart.

It’s hard to imagine such a tumultuous history today several generations later.

Republicans have always favored tax cuts that enriched themselves, but not better healthcare for Americans—especially women and children.

CBPP.org

So how should voters understand the American economy? Firstly, we have been living in what has been called the second Gilded Age that has favored the wealthiest since the 1970s, and not ordinary workers whose household incomes have stagnated since then.

But most Americans probably understand it’s most basic tenet: The Law of Supply and Demand. It’s an economic term, but based on commone sense. The price of things depends on the supply of things. And when there is an abrupt shortage, such as oil and gas because of the Arab oil embargo that cut off OPEC (The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries) oil imports in the 1970s, gas prices soared. And that began the upward cycle of price fluctuations.

Meanwhile, more than 80 million baby boomers became consumers at the same time who wanted more of everything. And the housing industry couldn’t build enough dwellings to satisfy the increased demand.

This is as good a common sense explanation as any to understand inflation. Prices go up or down when they aren’t in equilibrium—i.e., too much supply lowers prices, while too much demand from consumers and businesses raises them.

The same thing happened with the COVID-19 pandemic that killed one million Americans. The worldwide shutdowns and shelter-in-place requirements to keep it from spreading caused massive shortages of everything, which caused the price hikes that infuriated so many.

Consumers couldn’t very well blame COVID-19, a virus like the flu though much more virulent, but they could blame who was supposed to protect Americans from it.

What is most remarkable is that prices had been rising rapidly since the 1970s, but Americans hadn’t reacted as angrily as they did after the COVID-19 pandemic—maybe because of the trauma from so many lives lost—whole families in some cases.

Inflation is like the frog in water that has been slowly coming to a boil. For whatever reason, we have only noticed it since the water (meaning our economy) has come to a boil from the pandemic’s aftereffects that have most hurt our working class, many of whom had lost jobs as globalization moved good paying manufacturing jobs overseas in the name of making everything cheaper.

Most of us remember when a gallon of gas was less the $2, or a quart of milk less than $1, or housing prices were last affordable in the 1970s, as I said. But there was no quick cure. The OPEC oil embargo jump-started the decade-long inflation surge in the 1970s, for instance.

What can be done to cure the current inflation surge? Republicans and Trump’s “Drill Baby Drill” promise can’t do much to lower oil prices because the U.S. already produces more oil than it uses, while adding more CO2 to the atmosphere that is accelerating global warming, that endangers whole parts of the country.

And higher proposed tariffs won’t increase the supply of anything and might lower demand, since it makes imports more expensive because it is a tax on imported goods.

There are two solutions that the Biden administration have implemented, but Republicans don’t like—federal funds to make construction of affordable housing cheaper, and the elimination of loopholes that encourage the profit-taking by cartel-size pharmaceutical corporations that took advantage of the pandemic shortages and continue to raise their prices.

And lastly, we need more comprehensive healthcare legislation that would increase productivity of our workforce because they become healthier. But Republicans have historically opposed that as well, having attempted to repeal Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act, more than 30 times. It is the only private health insurance that insures more than 30 million Americans against preexisting conditions.

Republicans are even talking about downsizing Medicaid and Medicare in the name of increasing efficiency. That will also increase inflation, because M & M keep overall costs of healthcare lower with their power to control treatment and drug prices.

So it’s difficult to know if it was ideology and conspiracy theories triumphing common sense economics that enabled Republicans to win this election.

Inflation has returned to its historic norm, and the American economy is fully employed so everyone’s job is safe. Many voters want someone to blame for their myriad anxieties, as Kansans had done two decades earlier.

We will now have to worry if this Gilded Age will end as did the last one. So much wealth had been accumulated in too few hands that it caused the Great Depression and led to World War Two.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Donald Trump's Bully Mentality

 ANSWERING KENNEDY’S CALL

President Trump's first days in office were alarming for several reasons. He immediately began attacking the press, while intentionally stating falsehoods such as he would have won the popular vote, but for "3 to 5 million" fraudulent votes…Since most of those falsehoods are easily debunked, such as the size of the crowds at Friday's Inauguration and Saturday women's march.

Simon & Schuster

This occurred in 2017. Will we see a repeat of Donald Trump’s last term? It might be instructive to those 6 million Democratic voters that stayed home this election cycle to remind them why the rampant corruption of his first term and chaos at the border in 2017 when he attempted to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants, separating babies from their mothers, was why he wasn’t reelected for a second term.

It looks like a repeat performance as he is again nominating those most loyal and most incompetent for some of his cabinet picks, such as Matt Gaetz for Attorney General, Tulsi Gabbard for Department of National Intelligence, and Robert Kennedy, Jr. for Health and Human Services.

And he will again use the same bullying tactics to attempt to get them through the Senate without background checks or security clearances. How easily Americans have forgotten that a man who has used bullying tactics his whole life to get what he wants, has highlighted his own incompetence to be POTUS again.

I have written about the bully mentality in our culture before. In times of uncertainty as we have today, it has led to increased bullying in schools, and even gun violence. It is a mentality that attempts to impose a bully's version of reality on the real world for the sole purpose of domination. President Trump has always acted the bully, which is the reason for his history of lawsuits and bankruptcies, so that facts are only useful in so much as they support his needs.

Evidence of Trump's bullying tactics also comes from his words on social media. Groff Beattle, a professor of Psychology at Edge Hill University has reported Trump uses the body language and mannerisms of a bully, such as the exaggerated use of his hands.

Comments such as "mentally sick", "dummy", "looser" or "looked disgusting" are all examples of bullying language Trump uses to attempt to normalize such behavior. Trump's bullying tactics include calling President Obama the founder of a terrorist organization and insinuating that Clinton took drugs prior to a debate. He also mocked the disability of reporter Serge Kovaleski, portrayed immigrants and foreigners as dangerous people, rapists or "criminal aliens", and demonstrated a significant lack of respect for women or military veterans, calling wounded veterans “losers”.

How does one oppose such destructive behavior? First, we should know that bullies prey on those they can intimidate, and avoid confrontation with those stronger because of their own insecurities. Trump preyed on naïve students and the elderly in his Trump University scam. And he stiffed workers and employees when building his Trump Casinos either by paying them less than was contractually agreed to, or not at all.

Combine it with his narcissism that requires he be constantly in the limelight. So, the news media should ignore his tantrums, rather than always commenting on them. Remember that he makes such outrageous lies to gain even more attention.

Psychology Today posted a list of bullying behavior, a list that fits President Trump like a glove:

- Uncontrolled anger and unpredictable irritability, frequently directed at the weakest people ('safe targets') or those perceived as a future threat
- A sociopathic ability to control their own image - the selective ability to look like a different person to different audiences - for example, being aggressive to 'subordinates', while being charming and helpful to others
- Having little status outside of work, bullies wield the power that their job gives them with vicious zeal
- Running 'witch-hunts'
- Gratuitous domineering behaviour - sometimes physical
- The ability to make the unreasonable seem reasonable, even to the victims
--Projecting their own inadequacies onto others
- Making irrational accusations
- Publicly putting people down
- Sadistic enjoyment in humiliating others

The list of Trump's bullying tactics is endless, and how to counter them are well known. There is even a government website, https://www.stopbullying.gov/ to help understand what the bully mentality is all about. How sad it is that this U.S President-Elect, about to become the most powerful person on earth once again, is setting such an example of his own weakness and insecurity.

How easily Americans have forgotten his most recent past and what it could mean as he again seeks to limit freedoms and turn our Democracy into an Autocracy.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

How Much Do We Care?

 ANSWERING KENNEDY’S CALL

“Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the proposed secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, would undo all of this.  On his watch, were his ideas implemented, millions of us would die.  Knowing that our lives will be shorter, we become nasty and brutish.”

NPR.org

This is a question I asked in 2017. What country had the second-highest mortality from noncommunicable conditions — like diabetes, heart disease or violence — and the fourth highest from infectious disease? Also, from adolescence to adulthood to old age, what country has the highest chance of dying an early death?

The answer is the United States of America. Where else, since the U.S. is the only developed country in the world without universal health care? Then why would Donald Trump nominate RFK, Jr., an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy follower with no medical background who is the least qualified person for guarding the health of Americans as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

Timothy Snyder said it best in looking at Trump’s cabinet picks to date:

“Taken together, Trump’s candidates constitute an attempt to wreck the American government.

“The foundation of modern democratic state is a healthy, long-lived population.  We lived longer in the twentieth century because of hygiene and vaccinations, pioneered by scientists and physicians and then institutionalized by governments.  We treat one another better when we know we have longer lives to lose.  Health is not only the central human good; it enables the peaceful interactions we associate with the rule of law and democracy. 

“Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the proposed secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, would undo all of this.  On his watch, were his ideas implemented, millions of us would die.  Knowing that our lives will be shorter, we become nasty and brutish.”

The Republican Party itself has been on the same path with their efforts to dismantle healthcare legislation such as Obamacare in the name of downsizing government.

A recent New York Times Business Insider article by Eduardo Porter highlighted a recent study by the Institute of Medicine and the National Research Council of 16 of the richest countries in the world that set out to assess our nation’s health.

The results are devastating and show how far America has fallen behind in caring for its citizens.

This problem should have nothing to do with ideology, and whether access to affordable health care should be a privilege or a right. Too many Americans are dying of drug overdose and violence. Too many Americans suffer from depression, a major cause of drug abuse.

And too many Americans are obese, making them less productive and more prone to accidents in the workplace. “The United States ranks in the bottom fourth among the 30 industrialized nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in terms of days lost to disability,” says Porter. “Women will lose 362 days between birth and their 60th birthday: men about 336. Mental health problems like depression will account for most.”

But these statistics hide the real problem—rampant income inequality that has caused many of these unhealthy ouitcomes.

The U.S. ranks 106th of the 149 countries in income inequality as ranked by the CIA’s World Factbook; with a Gini inequality index of developing countries like Peru and Cameroon. Finland and the Scandinavian countries are at the top of equality, Germany and France are 12th and 20th, respectively. The higher the index, the greater the gap between wealthy and poorer citizens of a country’s population.

And the poorer the person, family, or community, the more prone to illness and drug use is that person, or family, or community. This is where the just defeated Senate version of repeal and replace Obamacare bill would have hurt the most—in the poorer red states that voted for President Trump.

“What’s more, the United States’ higher tolerance of poverty undoubtedly contributes to higher rates of sickness and death,” says Porter. “Americans at all socioeconomic levels are less healthy than people in some other rich countries. But the disparity is greatest among low-income groups.”

Finally contributing to our health crisis is the incredible amount of violence—both due to guns (33,000 per year killed by guns), workplace accidents, and drug abuse, that a universal health care system would treat via mental health coverages as well.

In other words, there are much higher costs because we don’t have a healthy healthcare system and we the citizens are paying those costs.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Holiday Sales Boom

 Popular Economics Weekly

FREDretailsales

The Commerce Department reported Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from September 2024, and up 2.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.0 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 4.3 percent (±2.1 percent) from October 2023

Sales of new cars and trucks jumped 1.6% in October to lead the charge among retailers. Auto sales account for one-fifth of all retail sales. Restaurant sales are also booming, so maybe consumers are breathing a great sigh of relief that the election is over.

So holiday sales are strong even though it will be two weeks before we know if the 12,000 new payroll jobs is a fluke in the October unemployment report because of the hurricane damage and 30,000 striking Boeing machinists, which is now settled.

Even the east coast docks’ strike was settled. Was it because the strikers wanted to enjoy the upcoming holidays with more money in their pockets? We won’t know if the September jobs report was a fluke, as I said, until October’s numbers come out, but Fed Chair Powell is now saying the Fed is not in a hurry to lower interest rates further if retail sales stay strong, especially with stronger inflation news.

Both wholesale inflation and retail inflation rates were higher than forecast in October, which is another sign that consumer spending hasn’t slowed, and will continue to push up prices.

So, was too high inflation the main reason Republicans won a landslide, as exit polls have said? Then why do consumers keep shopping, and pushing up prices even higher, if a majority was so unhappy with their costs?

Maybe there were other, more cultural factors that kept consumers from realizing how lucky we are to have the fastest growing economy in the western world with no worries about energy shortages.

I find it hard to believe that most consumers were unhappy with their own circumstances, since they have spent so much for leisure activities.

Americans continue to signal that travel is splurge-worthy and are again setting new records for vacation spending in 2024, according to Allianz Partners USA, a travel insurance company. Americans have more than doubled their projected summer vacation spending since the inception of the pandemic. The 2024 figure represents an approximately 3.5% increase over last year, but a whopping 118% jump compared to 2019.

Maybe consumers want to forget about the results of the presidential race that has left the country still split in two? But the majority was mad enough to bring in Donald Trump once again in a big way, after voting him out four years ago for doing so little.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Inflation Not the Problem

 Financial FAQs

Inflation is close to its long-term 2 percent range, so the Federal Reserve has accomplished its goal of stabilizing prices. Yet the election results show that rising prices since the COVID-19 pandemic most panicked voters; even more than the border crossings, or abortion restrictions, and jobs.

Reuters

So it’s difficult to say whether voters ignored basic economic principles, or ideologies triumphed common sense, so that many voters needed to blame someone for their anxieties and wanted to “throw out the bums” they believed caused it.

It is how democracies work. This reaction happened in most of the developed world where ruling majorities were blamed for the effects of the pandemic that damaged their economies.

But in the U.S. it was too much prosperity, not too little. The Bidenomics’ bills pumped an enormous amount of investments into our economy to build a larger industrial base, modernize our infrastructure and moderate the global warming.

And many voters didn’t seem to understand how it affected the most basic law of economics: the Law of Supply and Demand. It postulates that prices rise when there isn’t enough of something consumers want, and they fall when there is a surplus.

Only now has the supply of goods and services caught up with demand, which is why consumers continued to buy as prices rose, because the U.S. economy is fully employed and consumers weren’t worried about losing their jobs. The historically low number of workers applying for jobless benefits confirms this.

Yet voters were still unhappy. Everyone had a job that wanted one, yet wages for many weren’t rising as fast as the cost of everything since the pandemic.

Why? Because it took several years for the supply chains to recover, which meant the Federal Reserve had to raise interest rates to stabilize prices, making things even more expensive.

What can’t happen, however is for most prices to return to levels before the pandemic unless there is another recession—except for energy prices (gas, natural gas, electricity) because they can fluctuate wildly even in normal times. So energy prices have returned to more normal levels. Average gas prices, for instance, have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Consumer prices rose enough in October to keep the rate of inflation slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal, The consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.2 percent for the fourth month in a row, the government said Wednesday, matching economists’ forecast. It rose 2.6 percent in a year from September’s 2.4 percent inflation rate, marking the first upturn in seven months.

This could be problem, especially if some Republican priorities are enacted, such a more tax cuts, which might cause the Fed to hold off cutting interest rates further. It would probably hurt both stock and bond prices, for starters, and slow growth further in what is already a slowing economy.

On a more cheerful note, now that prices stabilized, the natural rise of wages will catch up with those newly stabilized prices and most of us will feel reassured—unless there’s another economic shock.

That could be a larger war, or a climate disaster. Americans are already experiencing a greater frequency of such shocks with more tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires and floods. So newly elected congress men and women, please, please, don’t cut the funding of the Environmental Protection Agency, or FEMA!

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Who Will Drain the Swamp?

 ANSWERING KENNEDY’S CALL

“This is so bad. We have just gotten list of amendments to be included in bill NOT from our R colleagues, but from lobbyists downtown,” said Missouri Dem Senator Claire McCaskill. “None of us have seen this list, but lobbyists have it. Need I say more? Disgusting. And we probably will not even be given time to read them.”

NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images

Donald Trump will be President and could have control of both the House and Senate again. The same happened in 2017 when he last won on the campaign promise to Drain the Swamp of corruption in Washington.

He didn’t succeed in his first term, actually creating a deeper swamp with rampant corruption at almost all levels of government. Will he do better this time; might he and his Republicans learn from their past mistakes?

Republicans will want more tax cuts, for starters, as well as extend the tax cuts his administration engineered in 2017, The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, that they passed with House and Senate majorities.

I wrote at the time, “The Republicans tax bill has passed, and it is the greatest theft of taxpayer monies in history; even greater than that of Presidents’ Reagan and Bush I and II that began the immense transfer of wealth to the wealthiest in 1980 with their tax cuts starving the government of much needed revenues that would keep the federal deficits under control.”

Why? It was written by the very lobbyists Republicans and the Trump administration had cultivated during his 2017 election.

More than 130 lobbyists were hired to work in his first administration, and 36 of them have blatant conflicts of interest, working on the same issues they were lobbying on, in violation of Trump’s ethics rules, according to MarketWatch economist Jeff Nutting.

“This is so bad. We have just gotten list of amendments to be included in bill NOT from our R colleagues, but from lobbyists downtown,” said Missouri Dem Senator Claire McCaskill. “None of us have seen this list, but lobbyists have it. Need I say more? Disgusting. And we probably will not even be given time to read them.”

The bill cut Medicare and Medicaid benefits by $1.5 trillion and could add $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit in 10 years according to the CBO. That’s $3 trillion taken from U.S. taxpayers for the biggest heist in history.

We know what happened when Republicans tried this taxpayer sleight of hand before. President Reagan and congress had to raise taxes 11 times to make up the deficits created by the first ‘trickle-down’ tax cuts in 1981. Two consecutive recessions in 1981 and 1982 followed as Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to record levels to choke off inflation at the same time.

Then GW Bush did the same in 2001-03, when he cut taxes again while paying for the wars on terror, resulting in the largest federal deficit in history at the time, as well as the Great Recession.

This did not generate enough tax revenue to pay for the additional debt, so foreign governments and individuals will become more reluctant to invest in U.S. debt, as the deficit continues to grow and interest rates rise.

It can happen again. It is suicidal economics. The U.S. won’t declare bankruptcy. But it will saddle future generations with an impossible debt load and prevent much needed public and private investment that would increase productivity and boost growth.

This happened in 2017, and the stench of lobbyists filling the swamp became so overwhelming in Donald Trump’s first term that it was the reason his Republican majority were voted out of office, as I said.

Is there any reason to doubt it will happen again?

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

No Art of the Deal

 ANSWERING KENNEDY’S CALL

“After all, it is mathematically impossible to cut taxes for corporations and billionaires, sustain basic programs like defense and Social Security, and lower the deficit simultaneously:” Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz.

Huffington Post

Historians will puzzle over the results of our latest presidential election for decades. A majority of Americans have just voted in a con artist and sexual predator for the second time who has failed in most of his business ventures and left investors holding the tab.

One conclusion will be that identity politics won, after all. Enough white women chose Donald Trump over the East-Asian/Black Kamala Harris who advocated more rights for women, while enough Hispanic and Black males put their faith in a misogynist who has sexually assaulted women.

Identity politics has moved much of the Democratic Party to the left with the Black Lives Matter and LBDGQ movements. But most exit polls said it was the economy that decided the vote—everything became too expensive after COVID-19.

My conclusion is that it has taken very special presidents to lead such a diverse populace that will defend the constitution. In modern times it was Roosevelt creating the New Deal to bring America out of the Great Depression and win World War 2.

But post-WWII generations eventually forgot what the New Deal had accomplished and voted in a Republican Party that by 1980 had begun to drain the federal budget by continually cutting taxes for their wealthy supporters creating massive federal deficits; Reagan (-$400 billion), GW Bush (-$1 trillion), and Donald Trump (-$5 trillion).

Democratic presidents wanted government programs that benefited more Americans, so President Clinton created actual budget surpluses in his last four years, President Obama brought America out of the Great Recession spawned by the GW Bush administration’s fiscal mismanagement and created Obamacare.

President Biden created a second New, New Deal to bail us out of the COVID-19 pandemic and begin to pay down Trump’s massive deficits, thereby creating the fastest economic recovery from the pandemic among developed countries. It is designed to protect Americans from climate change and modernize the economy for decades to come.

And now a peculiar American form of amnesia has set in once again; a majority of Americans have voted in Donald Trump for a repeat performance with the hope he will cure their economic malaise, even with his record of multiple bankruptcies. And Republicans will surely run up massive deficits in their quest to siphon even more of the federal budget as they did in his first term.

His stated policies will also endanger us because Trump not only wants to weaken America militarily by weakening military alliances such as NATO, but weaken environment protections as well by gutting the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency once again for the fossil fuel industry in the face of more frequent and greater hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires.

We know this because one of Trump’s first actions when elected in 2017 was to leave the Paris Accord. He has called climate change a hoax.

We currently have the second highest carbon emissions per capita after China, but would become the highest emitter among developed countries if Republicans succeed in rolling back 30 years of environmental regulation.

Why did he leave the Paris Accord I in 2017 when it is a voluntary accord to reduce carbon emissions? It was to help the coal industry, where Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is heavily invested in coal and has already made $millions with the 50 percent bump up in coal stocks since Trump took office.

And the Koch Brothers $millions that were spent to elect Tea Party candidates paid off as Trump initiated an immediate review of President Obama/s Clean Power Plan, which restricts greenhouse gas emissions at coal-fired power plants.

Surrounded by coal miners at the time, the president described the Paris Accord as a “crushing attack” on workers and vowed to nix “job-killing regulations. “We’re going to have safety, we’re going to have clean water, we’re going to have clean air, but so many [regulations] are unnecessary, so many are job-killing,” he said.

And Trump now says he wants Elon Musk to become the efficiency czar, which will cause even more economic damage, since Musk has promised to cut as much as $2 trillion “of waste”—the amount of the current budget deficit—from the next federal budget, at the same time that Trump and Republicans have promised more tax cuts for their wealthy supporters.

But in the words of Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz in Project-Syndicate, “After all, it is mathematically impossible to cut taxes for corporations and billionaires, sustain basic programs like defense and Social Security, and lower the deficit simultaneously.”

The next four years of Republican rule will be a measure of how much many Americans have fooled themselves once again, as they did in 2017. For a second time Americans will have the chance to learn from that experience, especially the young who may not have been of voting age, to see how Trump and the Republicans mishandled the economy that mostly profited themselves.

And it will be another bitter lesson for our women, minorities, the poor and even many in the middle class, as well as those that will suffer from the effects of a warming atmosphere.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

What's Next, Republicans?

 Financial FAQs

“What if conservatives succeeded in repealing Obamacare? “Republicans' Obamacare repeal bill would leave 17 million more people uninsured next year, and 32 million more in 2026, the Congressional Budget Office said in an estimate Wednesday. It also said premiums would double by 2026. …By 2026, three quarters of the population would live in areas with no insurers participating in the non-group market, due to upward pressure on premiums and downward pressure on enrollment, the report found.”

I wrote a Huffington Post piece in July 2017 during President Trump’s first term that could predict what we might look forward to with Republicans, and Donald Trump’s healthcare policy in his second go-around as president.

Huffington Post

The result for working Americans of Republicans’ repeated attempts to repeal Obama that I wrote about then is shown in the above graph. It compares the soaring death rates of 45-54 white American males with other developed countries (red USW line). Obamacare is the only American universal healthcare plan that covers workers with pre-existing conditions if no employer healthcare, and yet Republicans can be expected to again attempt to replace it with a “concept” in Trump’s words.

Americans had just avoided another health care disaster in voting down the Senate’s ‘skinny’ Obamacare Repeal and Replace bill in 2017. Even though maintaining most of the taxes to pay for the Medicaid portion, it would have made insurance coverage prohibitively expensive for those older and sicker users with the removal of the private and employer mandate requirements that would cause younger and healthier people to leave the insurance markets.

This is just the latest precipice that’s been avoided. Americans already have the worst health outcomes in the developed world, precisely because America is the only developed country—in fact, even of undeveloped countries—that doesn’t have universal coverage.

The result is one of the highest birth death rates, as well as diabetes, heart and other infectious disease rates—which are diseases usually associated with poorer, undeveloped countries.

The last time Republicans swept the presidential election in 2017, it was the very white, male Tea Party reacting to our first Black President. But they didn’t replace it with something new. They went back to their base of wealthy Oligarchs formed during the Reagan era, still fighting labor unions and resisting more social programs to help the less fortunate, as Trump’s MAGA nation has promised to do.

Trump’s electorate has been good at wanting to tear down the old institutions, but not good at replacing them with a newer, better system. And if Elon Musk becomes the efficiency czar in Trump’s new administration, and he continues to brag he can cut $2 trillion in waste from the federal budget, we know social programs and maybe much more will suffer in the name of reducing the national debt.

There is another, better way to replace what hasn’t worked for working Americans; but that must be based on science and new technologies that can come from our educated elite (rather than our political and wealthy elite).

If Republicans want to be part of that future, they can’t follow a con artist who doesn’t believe in the future, only the past.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Bidenomics Works--Part II

 Popular Economics Weekly

Calculated Risk

September’s unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent but reported just 12,000 new payroll jobs due to the hurricanes and Boeing aircraft strike of 30,000 machinists.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), following an average monthly gain of 194,000 over the prior 12 months, said the BLS. In October, employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.

That makes it a sure thing the Fed will continue to lower short-term rates at their November FOMC meeting. Also that economic growth will continue into the new year.

Health care added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Governments added 40,000 jobs but manufacturing lost 46,000 jobs, which is probably because of the Boeing strike.

Calculated Risk’s graph shows us just how good President Biden’s Bidenomics policies have been. More than 16 million jobs have been created since January 2021 as we returned to work from the brief COVID-19 pandemic shutdown.

But with the Presidential election upon us, our future prosperity is still in doubt. We should take Elon Musk at his word when he said at the Madison Garden rally that he would cut at least $2 trillion from the federal budget if Trump wins, and he is appointed efficiency czar. It would lead to economic disaster, even for his Billionaire supporters.

“After all, it is mathematically impossible to cut taxes for corporations and billionaires, sustain basic programs like defense and Social Security, and lower the deficit simultaneously,” said Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz in Project-Syndicate.

And we should believe what Trump says, according to Mary Trump, his niece, as Trump becomes more irrational, threatening anyone he now perceives as his enemy, including Taylor Swift, so that her boyfriend Kansas City footballer Travis Kelce has told him not to mess with his girl!

“Donald Trump is offering a vision of crony rentier capitalism that has enticed many captains of industry and finance. In catering to their wishes for more tax cuts and less regulation, he would make most Americans’ lives poorer, harder, and shorter,” said Stiglitz.

Timothy Snyder in the introduction of On Freedom, the sequel to his best-selling On Tyranny, tells us why we have a sociopath bordering on psychopathy as the Republican Party candidate for President of the United States of America.

“Deep into a century that was the stuff of dreams in the 1970s, and the subject of confident predictions in the 1990s, we find ourselves at a turning point. Whether we will be free will depend on us—not just on what we do, but on why we do it: our ideals.”

It’s a sad commentary that one of our political parties chose a leader that wants to tear down those institutions that have preserved our democracy; created properity for many; then attack the Capital on January 6 to attempt to overturn the 2020 election,.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

The Harris Presidency

 ANSWERING KENNEDY’S CALL

What would it mean for Kamala Harris to be our first female President? It’s a historical turning point that affirms women have finally attained equal political rights to men, and American citizens s confirm they want greater personal rights—to expanded health care, abortion, and environment protection that has been held back by a dominant male culture until now.

Should Harris and the Democrats win it would also signal the end of the Second Gilded Age, an age characterized by record income inequality that began in earnest when President Ronald Reagan’s supply-side economic policies began to transfer massive amounts of wealth from working adults (small business and salaried) to the owners of wealth (capital assets) in the 1980s.

cbpp.org

It would give President-Elect Harris a mandate to begin to reverse the tax structures that were the major cause of the record inequality by raising corporate and personal tax rates back to Reagan-era levels, and thus begin to reduce the massive budget deficits that resulted.

President Reagan and Republicans cut the maximum personal tax rate for the wealthiest from 50 percent to 28 percent and reduced corporate taxes from 34 to 28 percent to initiate what economists call the Second Gilded Age, which resulted in our first massive deficit--$400 billion—by the end of his administration.

The massive deficits continued to grow under successive Republican administration tax cuts that resulted in curtailing our social safety net. GW Bush’s deficit grew to $1 trillion, and the Trump administration’s to more than $5 trillion.

A Harris Presidency could also mean an end to our ongoing civil war, a war originally between the industrial North vs. slave-holding South that never really ended with General Lee’s surrender at the Appomattox Courthouse in 1865.

Though slave-owning was banned with the Emancipation Proclamation and Abraham Lincoln’s north winning the civil war, southern states found ways to continue to impoverish former slaves by terrorizing them under Jim Crow laws that even the civil rights acts of the 1960s couldn’t completely eradicate.

Today’s manifestation of our civil war has morphed into a battle between red states controlled by Republicans with a white male/Oligarchic culture continuing to impoverish their own citizens vs. more prosperous blue states with a dominant female/minority majority.

Kamala Harris has promised in her platform and speeches that she would be a President for all Americans. That would mean policies benefiting red state citizens as well, such as raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25 that was last raised in 2009.

Currently 14 states haven’t raised their minimum wage since then, or at all. Five red states have not even adopted a state minimum wage: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee. Two states, Georgia and Wyoming, have a minimum wage below $7.25 per hour, so that in all seven of these states, the federal minimum wage guarantees at least a $7.25 per hour wage. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the only blue states still with the federal minimum wage.

There are other ways the red states have kept workers’ salaries lower that Harris should remedy: lobby to repeal so-called right-to-work laws in 26 states that say members of a union aren’t required to pay union dues even though they enjoy the benefits. The result is that membership in unions has declined, along with workers’ rights to bargain collectively. And those 26 states now have a Supreme Court majority to enforce those state laws.

Democratic majorities have always found ways to benefit more Americans since the New Deal. President Obama was able to pass Obamacare, or the Affordable Care Act, the first universal health insurance that meant insurance companies couldn’t ban clients with existing conditions.

Climate change has become a clear and present danger causing more hurricanes, floods, wildfires threatening Americans that Donald Trump has called a hoax, and would rather “Drill baby drill” for more fossil fuels.

The Biden administration has already begun work on reducing global warming with the Inflation Reduction Act subsidizing alternative energy sources that don’t increase global warming but that the Republican Party vociferously opposes to protect its fossil fuel constituents.

We have lived through a Gilded Age before. The first Gilded Age came in the late 1800s, when the Industrial Revolution made Robber Barons such as railroad titan Cornelius Vanderbilt, banking titan JP Morgan, and Standard Oil’s John D Rockefeller the richest men in their time.

It ended with the death of President William McKinley in 1901, and revelations of rampant corruption followed by Teddy Roosevelt’s Progressive Party and Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal that created government institutions such as the Federal Reserve to regulate banking and social security, as well as empowering labor unions to level the playing field for workers.

If elected, Kamala Harris and Democrats should be able to continue the new New Deal legislation that President Biden’s Bidenomics’ policies have initiated with more than $5 trillion invested in keeping America great and creating 16 million jobs that have benefited all of our citizens, not just Oligarchs such an Elon Musk.

Musk warned, after all, what would happen if he became the efficiency czar Trump says he wants him to be and cuts $2 trillion from the $6.75 trillion federal budget. There would be no money left for social programs, the military, and drastic cuts in social security and Medicare benefits, say economists such as Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman.

It would also mean Husband Doug Emhoff would become the first, First Gentleman, which wouldn’t diminish the historical record of great First Ladies. Men should take heart that women have equaled men in all ways, not just in intelligence and courage, but have shown a heart large enough to create a United States, not a Divided States of America, when Kamala Harris becomes our new President.

Harlan Green © 2024

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen