“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, business investment, and federal government spending.”
It might not seem fair to compare the Biden and Trump administrations, economically. The Biden administration will have created almost 16 million payroll jobs in four years, whereas Trump had created 6.7 million jobs until the 2000 pandemic, but lost -2.7 million jobs overall during his term because of its severity.
Though COVID-19 was made worse by Trump’s misinformation campaign that cast doubt on many of the actions needed to limit its damage, such as wearing masks in crowds and advocating chlorine injections.
But the increase in the 3rd (and final) revision to third quarter economic growth when many thought a recession was immanent this year gives testament to the strength of the economic recovery under President Biden. The U.S. economy has now expanded by at least 3% in each of the past two quarters. What’s more, the most recent estimates suggest GDP will top 3% in the fourth quarter, as well.
The result has been surging growth and full employment with declining inflation, refuting the misinformation barrage that elected Trump for a second term. The Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation measure even came in below expectations, up just 0.1 percent in November, 2.4% annually.
But it still hasn’t answered the question of many voters:Why haven’t prices come down for the things that consumers use daily?
The simplest answer is that most consumers are flush with rising wages and leftover savings that have boosted retail sales and leisure activities. The big driver of economic growth has been consumer spending. Household spending increased to a 3.7% annual pace in the third quarter, from 3.5%. Prices would come down if consumers wanted to spend less—maybe because they had lost confidence in future growth and feared for their jobs October
But that hasn’t been the case. Consumer confidence surveys, such as by the Conference Board, are showing they aren’t that worried or unhappy about their jobs.
“Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market.”
Another index by the Conference Board, it’s Index of leading Economic Indicator (LEI) that attempts to predict future growth has also turned positive. It rose for the first time since February 2022.
“A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November,” said Senior Manager Justyna Zabinska-La Monica.
Even Fed Chairman Powell is now saying they might have fewer rate cuts next year if such strong growth continues.
And that will hurt the anemic housing market, which just last Thursday announced the largest rise in existing-home sales in a year, all because of a slight (and temporary?) drop in mortgage rates.
The National Association of Realtors announced that total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – improved 4.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November. Year-over-year, sales bounced 6.1% (up from 3.91 million in November 2023).
“Home sales momentum is building,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows compared to a year ago, and consumers get used to a new normal of mortgage rates between 6% and 7%.”
So even the housing market is telling us that Bidenomics has been a success. And Republicans will now be taking credit for it over the next four years, so I think they won’t dare cut those programs in the name of greater efficiency that have made President Biden’s investments in future growth so successful.
Harlan Green © 2024
Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen
No comments:
Post a Comment