Friday, February 14, 2025

Inflation Is Back?

 Popular Economics Weekly

“Kentuckians can’t afford the high cost of Trump’s tariffs,” which could cost the average Kentucky resident $1,200 a year. “[P]reserving the long-term prosperity of American industry and workers requires working with our allies, not against them.” Senator Mitch McConnell


Senator Mitch McConnell’s op-ed in the Louisville Courier Journal (thanks to Heather Cox Richardson) tells us why the former head of the Republican Senate voted against Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence. He considers their history of incompetence a threat to our national security.

And it looks like that will happen, if President Trump and his Oligarchs get their way with tariffs. But signs of higher inflation are beginning to appear in the New Year that may hinder their implementation of higher tariffs.

Senator McConnell had been the Democrat’s biggest thorn until now, including stonewalling Presidents Obama’s pick of Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court, but of late has been more concerned with the damage that President Trump may do to national security.

Most of the tariffs Trump has announced are targeting our closest allies, thereby weakening them economically. Our closest allies are also our largest trading partners, so they have the low-hanging fruit that Trump first wants to pick by collecting taxes on their exports.

This, of course, increases his wealth and that of his supporters, almost all billionaires in their own right. But a budget battle is looming in March over annual expenditures and the debt ceiling that must be raised to pay for the tax cuts they want, and little room to maneuver with Republicans’ thin House majority.

This also endangers just how Republicans have increased their wealth exponentially since the 1980s while chiseling away at the benefits (such as Medicaid) that increase the wellbeing of the less wealthy—many of whom live in the red states they control.

It is unfortunate that President Trump’s wave of tariff announcements have occurred at the same time as inflation is beginning to rise again. This is incredibly bad timing when he said that he would bring down inflation on ‘Day 1’ of his presidency.

For instance, the retail Consumer Price Index for prices that directly affect consumers is back up to 3 percent y/y after hitting its low point of 2.4 percent last September. The rise in prices was mostly due to soaring food prices (eggs/bird flu) and energy prices (gas and oil)—probably because of the very cold winter.

McConnell’s main worry seemed to be how the tariffs would weaken relationships with our closest allies that help to protect us from the likes of Putin’s Russia or China’s Xi. Trump is using tariffs as a blunt weapon to bring down the budget deficit, while disregarding national security concerns that tariffs are supposed to enhance, which should be to increase the sourcing of strategic raw materials, such as steel and aluminum.

But we don’t really have a problem with aluminum and steel sourcing because our current alliances already supply what we need. That’s why we know Trump’s real reason is not to enhance national security, but to enhance his own financial security enriching himself and the billionaire class by taxing more imports to bridge the huge budget deficit gap.

So how in fact can we reduce the current inflation surge? We must reduce the demand side of the equation, which the Fed is helping to do by keeping short term interest rates slightly higher (4.25% to 4.50%) than current inflation. It makes credit more expensive for investments as well as consumer spending.

Reducing government investments will also reduce demand, because it flows into the private sector where it’s spent by consumers and businesses. But the Oligarchs want only to reduce the size of government expenditures that don’t directly benefit them, such as healthcare, environmental protection, and consumer protection by reducing regulations they don’t like that also reduce their profit margins.

Why otherwise fire so many Inspector Generals who monitor financial misbehavior? Or, why fire so many FBI agents who protect our national security, which is a sign they care little about our national security.

The problem is how to make government more efficient, but that also benefits the less wealthy? Everyone agrees there’s a lot of waste, but also necessary public investments that improve infrastructure, protect the climate, and national Research and Development that the private sector won’t do.

But Oligarchs want only to cut the benefits of everyone else.

Harlan Green © 2025

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

No comments: