Saturday, February 22, 2025

Trump's Choice--Economic War, Not Peace

 Answering Kennedy’s Call

“Our society has been peaceful and healthy for so long that for many people serious disaster has become inconceivable. Americans who parade around in amateur militia groups and brandish Nazi symbols do so partly because they are unable to conceive of what life would actually be like in a fascist state.” James Marriott of The Times, cited by Heather Cox Richardson

Our peaceful, healthy and democratic society is being rudely awakened by Donald Trump’s choices in his second term election. Because of the years of good times, Americans are not prepared for what will come next. But neither are the two ‘straight’ men doing the most damage who have chosen to take a chainsaw to the federal budget with little planning or fore thought of the consequences.

We can look forward to more chaos in the financial markets, for starters. Because Republicans’ next battle will be their attempt to pass a 2025 fiscal year budget and cut taxes at the same time. Because it is obvious that neither Trump nor Musk have any idea how our economy works.

One sign of their ignorance is Trump’s insistence that foreign corporations and governments pay the tariff taxes levied on U.S. imports. Tariffs are taxed and paid at the point of entry, either by the importers or their clients adding to their cost, which is inflationary

We are already seeing economic damage in the chaotic way Musk’s DOGE is downsizing watchdog federal agencies that monitor financial activity, such as the FCC and SEC, ignoring laws and congressional mandates. No economy can grow amid such ignorance of the ingredients that make it work, that create trust in its institutions.

GW Bush in 2000 tried to ignore most regulations that govern economic activity in Republicans’ earlier quest for a “free” market by ignoring regulations that protect markets that catch the cheaters. The Great Recession followed, the worst worldwide downturn since the Great Depression.

Republicans seem to have forgotten that lesson in their current support of what Trump/Musk are doing. Musk’s DOGE employees are not only blindly firing employees in the agencies that give consumers and investors’ confidence in the future, but the unpredictability of their actions is revealing that Musk/Trump never had a viable plan to do it.

The Clinton administration was the last administration to successfully shrink federal spending. It was carefully planned and led to the longest period of economic growth since WWII—for 10 years until the 2001 9/11 Twin-tower attacks.

They planned it carefully by taking the time to work with congress and institute budget cuts gradually over several years with the goal of shrinking government spending to 2 percent of GDP. It resulted in four years of budget surpluses from 1996 to 2000.

We are already seeing the toll on consumers from the incompetence of Musk’s DOGE hackers working in secret, some with criminal records. The University of Michigan sentiment survey of consumer confidence has plummeted.

Survey confidence dropped 10% from January to the lowest level since late 2023. The second of two readings of consumer sentiment in February slipped to 64.7 from 67.8 earlier in the month.

According to the report, Americans’ expectations for inflation over the next five to 10 years rose to 3.5% from 3.3% earlier in the month and from 3.2% in January. This is the largest month-over-month increase since May 2021.

And as if to confirm their fears, the DOW plunged almost -800 points and the S&P more than -100 points last Friday.

It is while Bloomberg reports U.S. business activity nearly stalled in February amid mounting fears over tariffs on imports and deep cuts in federal government spending, erasing all the gains notched in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's election victory.”

This is hardly a vote of confidence for an administration that was elected on the promise of reducing inflation.

Republicans and Trump’s electorate seem to have no idea what living under a fascist government means, where all power is concentrated in the executive branch under one man, with full disregard of the laws of the land, the constitution, the judiciary and congress.

It is sad they haven’t taken the more successful track to downsizing government that President Clinton took, another impeached president (not convicted). Working with congress and the laws of the land resulted in the Clinton administration’s four years of budget surpluses, not the impending chaos and economic destruction ahead caused by Trump and Republicans choice of vengeance over cooperation.

Harlan Green © 2025

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

No comments: