Economists have been worrying about a ‘double-dip’ recession; i.e., should the US economy return to negative growth in the fourth quarter or Q1 of 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment report is showing signs that it may happen early next year with the nonfarm payroll job creation of just 245,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November, down from 610,000 jobs in October and 711,000 jobs in September.
Government payrolls shrank almost 100,000, while private payrolls grew 344,000, the BLS reported. “Notable job gains occurred over the month in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 145,000 in November but is 123,000 below its February level; employment rose by 82,000 in couriers and messengers and by 37,000 in warehousing and storage since February.“
The unemployment rate dropped one-tenth of a point to 6.7 percent because 400,000 stopped looking for work.
The Calculated Risk graph compares job losses since 1948, with the blue line a picture of the length in months of the 2007 Great Recession losses until returning to the prior employment peak and red line the current COVID-19 induced losses. It also dramatizes the huge gap in current losses that must be closed to return to normal job growth.
When can that be while the U.S. has the highest case tally in the world at 14.1 million and the highest death toll at 276,401, or more than a fifth of the global total as of yesterday? The U.S. counted 216,548 new cases on Thursday, and at least 2,857 people died, just below the record of 2,885 set a day earlier, according to a New York Times tracker.
“In November, 21.8 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, up from 21.2 percent in October,’ said the BLS. “In November, 14.8 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic.”
There were now a record 100,667 COVID-19 patients in U.S. hospitals on Thursday, according to the COVID Tracking Project, topping Wednesday's record of 100,226. Brazil has now the second highest death toll at 175,270 and is third by cases at 6.5 million. India is second worldwide in cases with 9.6 million, and third in deaths at 139,188. Mexico has the fourth highest death toll at 108,173 and 11th highest case tally at and 1.7 million cases, or sixth highest in the world.
That is a lot of growth to make up in the midst of this pandemic, if there is no surety when it will end, and double-dip recessions are nothing new in our current boom or bust economic system, as I said recently. And will that change with President Biden assuming power in January?
HarlanGreen © 2020
Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen
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