Popular Economics Weekly
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS.gov
The Consumer Price Index for retail goods is the highest in three years and a reason the recent (December) Harris poll for The Guardian says 57 percent of Americans believe the U.S. is already in a recession—despite last week’s strong unemployment report and initial Q1 2026 2% economic growth.
When will the Strait of Hormuz blockade end, one of the reasons for the inflation upsurge, when President Trump has said many times in many confusing ways the Iran war is over? We might find out after the Chinese summit.
That’s because China imports 40-50 percent of its oil via the Hormuz Strait according to most experts. And it’s almost the only leverage Trump has in his negotiations with Chairman Xi over the stranglehold Xi has on strategic minerals that make things like super magnets to power computers and jet fighters.
Food prices have a huge impact, per the CPI. That’s because prices are rising on more than gas. It’s the everyday items like food that are depressing American consumers big time.
· The index for food rose 0.5 percent in April after being unchanged in March. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in April.
· The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.3 percent over the month as the index for beef rose 2.7 percent.
· The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.8 percent in April and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 1.1 percent.
· The index for dairy and related products increased 0.8 percent over the month and the index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.1 percent in April.
The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey tells us why Americans are depressed:
“About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall,” said survey director Joanne Hsu
And when will that happen? I believe Trump is using the blockade to pressure China on trade concessions, rather than Iran; which is one reason he keeps belittling Iran’s efforts at ending the blockade. Iran is only important as a means of holding China’s feet to the fire on the Hormuz Strait.
Although it’s in both China and America’s best interest to conclude a trade treaty asap, and then work to re-open the Strait, it could still take months to finalize. And before gas prices and inflation begin to come down.
Harlan Green © 2026
Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen
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