A Better World is Possible

 

Popular Economics Weekly

"Today we won because the Hungarian people didn't ask what their country could do for them, but what they could do for their country," Prime Minister Peter Magyar

NPR

I never thought I would see the most famous line from President John Fitzgerald Kennedy’s 1960 inauguration speech be adopted by another head of state, much less by a Kennedy look-alike of about the same age (45 years vs. JFK’s 43 years).

In a victory speech delivered to jubilant supporters on the banks of the Danube River, Magyar reiterated his promises to rebuild Hungary's ties with the European Union and NATO, root out corruption and cronyism and "restore the system of checks and balances," reported NPR.

Peter Magyar had just defeated Victor Orban, Hungary’s 16-year Prime Minister by a landslide, who was leader of the world’s so-called ‘illiberal’ democracies. Why did Orban lose, according to most commentators? It was the economy, “fueled largely by concerns about entrenched government corruption,” said NPR

Hungary had become the poorest member of the European Union with an inflation rate twice that of the EU average, and plunging economy growth.

“Hungary is the most corrupt state in the European Union, according to Transparency International, an organization that aims to combat corruption. The EU has blocked billions in funding to Orbán's government for its alleged assault on the bloc's principles of democracy and equality,” said NPR

So much for one-man rule. It’s a fact that other countries ruled by such autocrats are suffering the same fate as Hungary, such as Russia and Turkey, who had been suffering from slow growth and double-digit inflation for decades.

Why? Such rulers think they know better than the experts. President Trump’s playbook followed that of Orban with U.S. economic growth also plunging of late—mainly because of his Iran war that has shut down petroleum production in the Middle East. Who knows what’s to come?

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate of first quarter (Q1) 2026 economic growth widely followed by economists has plunged from its high of 3 percent, where it had been sitting since January 2026, to 1.3 percent in the latest revision, I reported last week.

The cult-like glorification and rampant corruption of President Trump that is harming the U.S. economy is almost a photocopy of Orban’s rule—tearing down the White House East Wing for a ballroom, wanting an Arc de Triomphe, family and son-in-law being enriched by Middle East rulers, his Bit-coin ventures (with World Liberty Financial, founded in September 2024 with the Trump family owning 75 percent), per The Nation, pardoning literally thousands of convicted felons, including convicted drug kings, and most of all extorting wealth from institutions and Robber Baron’s alike in return for special treatment.

Let us hope Hungary’s new Prime Minister can follow the path of President Kennedy, who concluded his inauguration speech with a plea to the rest of the world: “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of mankind.”

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Our Inflation Nation

 Financial FAQs

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS.gov

FREDcpi

We knew it was coming. Not just when. The Iran war is in its second month and has already produced the largest supply shock to the global oil market in history, the IEA said last month.

On Tuesday, the head of the group, Fatih Birol, told French newspaper Le Figaro as reported by several news agencies that the current crisis is more severe than the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, and the 2022 Ukraine-war shock, combined.

And there’s no end in sight as the world’s largest economy is making the supply shortages worse. It’s an incredible reversal of our standing in the world.

The high spike in the CPI inflation graph above is a disheartening picture of what happens when mad kings attempt to control economies and countries that have a chokehold on supply chains needed by the world economies.

This is just the latest mismanagement by the Trump administration—and Republican Party also has allowed, let’s not forget—of the American economy. President Trump wanting to pay for his tax cuts with higher tariffs had already snarled supply chains and caused a second post-COVID inflation round.

The Biden administration had wrestled annual CPI inflation below 3 percent in 2024 from the earlier COVID-19 pandemic spike, where it stood until now.

And Trump apparently thought attacking a country that bordered a waterway through which 20 percent of petroleum supplies and products flowed would not do further damage to the world’s economies.

So what was he thinking? The problem is he doesn’t bother to think things through at all. This is the second spike that has raised the cost of living since the tariff induced inflation. So why would polls show a majority of voters believe Republicans are better at economic growth?

Is it because Trump runs the federal government from Mar-a-Lago, or one of his golf courses (That’s a joke.)?

The all-items consumer index rose the most—3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March, after rising 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending February. It rose 2.6 percent less food and energy over the year. The energy index increased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending March, as a result of the Iran war.

And American consumers are already feeling it. The University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment fell to a record low of 47.6 in April from 53.3 in the prior month.

“Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall,” said Survey Director Joanne Hsu

It doesn’t mean consumers will shop more once they receive their Trump tax refunds. But inflation is a growth killer, and countries such as Russia or even Turkey that are experiencing one-man rule have had nothing but double-digit inflation for decades, because their leaders thought they knew better than anyone else how to run their country.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Poor Economic Growth Ahead?

Popular Economics Weekly

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased “On April 7, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.3 percent, down from 1.6 percent on April 2.”

AtlantaFed

More warnings of slowing economic growth are appearing. And now we have a Gulf War that makes predictions more unpredictable. Who knows what’s to come?

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate of first quarter (Q1) 2026 economic growth that is widely followed by economists has plunged from its high of 3 percent, where it had been sitting since January 2026, to 1.3 percent in the latest revision.

Why the surprise drop, since fourth quarter 2025 GDP growth had already plunged from 1.4 percent to 0.7 percent in its latest revision?

Much higher GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 last year showed that financial markets were buying the Trump message that American taxpayers and businesses would start spending more from the Big Beautiful Tax Bill write-offs this spring.

The latest retail sales and a good March unemployment report (+178,000 jobs) had kept up optimism for a better year. There were also hopes that increased business investments—another component of GDP—would create more jobs.

But in fact the opposite is happening. Most business investment is being spent on AI energy centers, which is causing more joblessness, with wholesale job layoffs being announced as a consequence—at the likes of Amazon, which has announced a total of 30,000 job cuts to date.

And we are seeing imports continuing to flood in, far out distancing exports, which increases the trade deficit and brings down our Gross Domestic Product growth, since GDP measures only what is produced or sold in the U.S.

The Wall Street Journal survey says that on average, economists forecast gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to grow 2.1% in the fourth quarter this year from a year earlier. That was down incrementally from 2.2% in January. They expect the unemployment rate will be 4.5% in December, matching their forecast in January, before the war. Last month the unemployment rate was 4.4%.

Economic Growth is difficult to forecast; economists will tell you. And the Atlanta Federal Reserve is one of the few that dare to do it. We don’t even have the final fourth Quarter 2025 revision yet, which has shrunk steadily as I said after a much better looking Q3 of +4.4 percent GDP growth.

Besides job, trade deficit, and business investment data, the GDP includes consumer spending. That number hasn’t faltered as badly. So we should be looking at consumer behavior if we want to know what happens next.

I said last week that retail sales picked up in March, so consumers are shopping again and consumer confidence edged up as well.

There is something else that could improve consumers’ attitudes and hence GDP. Lower inflation would increase the demand for goods and services—but how to achieve it with $4 per gallon gas prices for who knows how long? Lower inflation is possible with AI efficiencies increasing labor productivity and lowering product costs. But it takes time, years, as with past technological innovations.

The just-announced two-week ceasefire could certainly bring down oil and gas prices, if it holds, and Trump will want it to hold given its unpopularity.

The Federal Reserve is hinting it could go up or down on their interest rate decisions this year. But if the labor market continues to shrink the Fed will also want lower interest rates ahead. And any easing of credit conditions (lower cost of borrowing) would be good news for economic growth this year.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Great Employment Report!

Popular Economics Weekly

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline,.” BLS

MarketWatch

This was a very good March unemployment report, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a complete reversal of February’s -133,000 (revised) payroll job losses. It was mainly because 31,000 Kaiser healthcare nurses settled their strike, and improved weather brought construction workers out that were building the record number of AI data centers that must generate so much electricity for Artificial Intelligence that could put as much as 30 percent of white-collar workers out of jobs.

It didn’t bring much enthusiasm back to Wall Street because Trump threatened in his national address to continue the Iran War while he ended it and let everyone else deal with the Strait of Hormuz.

It was his usual gobbledygook, in other words, that didn’t make anyone happy and shifted the blame for the closing of the Strait to others, when there had always been free passage until Trump/Hegseth revealed how much they enjoyed killing people.

It was a reprise of the Bush/Cheney Iraq war, in other words, that took eight years to resolve and ultimately led to the Great Recession.

The March unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3 percent while 400,000 more adults left the workforce. This means our working age population continues to shrink while fewer workers are needed thanks to more use of Claude, CHATgbt, bots, etc., etc., until who knows when??

We should know be looking at consumer behavior if we want to know what happens next. Retail sales picked up in March, so consumers are shopping again and consumer confidence edged up as well. Retail sales comprise some 50 percent of consumer spending and is the main driver of growth for the U.S. economy.

In the 12 months ending in February, retail sales increased a solid but below-trend 3.7% in unadjusted terms, but that was before $4 per gallon gas and the supply disruptions from the Iran war.

And “Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

We will certainly see higher prices and possibly higher interest rates ahead as the Iran war continues, as we did with the Iraq war. Alan Greenspan’s Federal Reserve raised its Fed Funds rate from 1% in 2003 to 5.25% in 2006 to combat soaring inflation from the $2 trillion plus cost of the ill-fated invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan that created America’s first $trillion budget deficit.

The badly-planned Iran war will cost as much or more while American taxpayers continue to struggle to pay for more federal debt as this war drags on.

I get the feeling we are staring at another economic precipice. It can for several reasons—another costly war, an energy shortage, President Trump asking allies to bail him out after dissing them, the illegal tariffs, cutting off immigration when there’s a looming shortage of workers, etc., etc…

The list is almost endless.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Why the Decline in Job Vacancies?

 Financial FAQs

“The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires decreased to 4.8 million, and total separations changed little at 5.0 million.” BLS.gov

FREDjobopenings

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was bad news for workers, as per the slide in available jobs portrayed in the above graph of monthly job openings.

It has now fallen to just 6.9 million in February 2026, the total of available nonfarm payroll jobs tallied by the Labor Department. Actual job hires fell to 4.8 million while 5.0 million left the workforce, a net loss of 200,000 jobs.

The Iran War will add to the damage that has already been done to the U.S.—and maybe worldwide—economy from the single-minded focus on what is most important to President Trump and his Robber Barons; bringing back another Gilded Age with its ultra-consolidation of wealth that has caused record public debt that is being paid for by American taxpayers. 

Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich listed the economic damage from Trump’s first term alone. He (Trump) pledged to be “the greatest jobs president that God has ever created.”

He’s been the worst jobs president in American history. In his first term, Trump presided over a historic net loss of nearly 3 million jobs, the worst jobs numbers ever recorded under an American president, as tabulated by FactCheck.org.

FactCheck.org showed more the decline in Trump’s first term:

· The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 36.3% from 2016.

· The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million.

· The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.

And President Trump month-long war with Iran is adding to the damage with the blocked petroleum supply chain that provides so many necessary byproducts—such as fertilizer, natural gas and helium, for starters.

“After a month, your war has already cost 13 American lives, cost American taxpayers at least $30 billion, cost American consumers at least a dollar more per gallon of gas than they paid a month ago, pushed up food prices and mortgage rates, and pushed down the value of 401(k) retirement plans. It’s mangled supply chains for industries that rely on items such as fertilizer to grow food or helium to make computer chips,” said Professor Reich

So we shouldn’t be looking at the 1970’s era of stagflation for a result from the Iran War because of the damage already done in President Trump’s second term, whether the Strait is closed, or not. It may take longer to materialize but look more like another Great Recession, I said recently, that was caused by the economic mismanagement of another Republican administration involved in a Middle East war.

A key will be watching the employment picture this week, especially the Labor Department’s Friday unemployment report.

Harlan Green © 2026

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen